Re: In July unemployment was down (after Brexit)
Brexit hasn't happened yet. It is at least 2 1/2 years away, if it happens at all.
There are only 2 viable options for the position outside the EU.
Remain within the EEA (presumably by rejoining the EFTA). I believe that were we to pursue an off the shelf agreement then it would be relatively easy to achieve, as long as we don't try to gain exemptions from too many of the responsibilities of EEA membership. From a business perspective this would maintain the status quo, and everything would return to normal just as soon as it starts looking to be decided. The rest of the EEA would not be stupid enough to prevent this. However if we start asking for a special deal it won't happen. (The Swiss have been trying for years and are still effectively regular EEA members.) The EU would be insane to allow it, because it would undermine the whole thing.
The other option is WTO memberships, I believe the result of this will lots of EU headquarters and EU centric manufacturing relocating to remain within the free market. It would also mean lots of EU firms upping their orders from UK firms so they have a big inventory for when it becomes troublesome to purchase from the UK. These two factors will cause a pre-Brexit boom. Lots of contractors will be needed to help relocate. (Once it is over there will be a nasty shock for the UK.)
An interesting point is the delays to article 50 will put the next election very close to the actual leaving date. Which would mean the temporary positive effects would still be there, benefiting the current administration's chances.
Apparently the civil service is evaluating both these options (but not the breakup of the UK, interestingly).
However given the promises about the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland that have been made, I really can't see that an WTO arrangement is possible.
If we are not part of the free market, then at the very least it must be a customs border. Otherwise it is a wide open backdoor in and out of the free market. The EEA could not allow this.
If we want to 'control our borders' ie EU citizens (since we control everyone else), then a passport border would be needed. Otherwise any EU citizen could come legitimately to the RoI, and then into the UK.
So it would appear that this promise, a non-EEA arrangement and an intact UK are mutually incompatible. (You can have any two).
I think we will remain in the EEA. (And to be fair if only one in every 25 leave voters voted based on the Norway model, then the majority of the UK wish to remain in the EEA).
If that happens none of the doom and gloom will come to pass, and I think that business is hoping the same and deferring decisions to pull out. (But they are also deferring investments too.)