Softbank promises stronger ARM: Greater overseas reach and double the UK jobs Brit-tech success poster child ARM holdings is to be acquired by Japanese telecom multinational Softbank. ARM, whose chip designs drive the majority of the world’s smartphones, is under offer for a remarkable £24.3bn - a premium of 43 per cent over current stock price. Softbank, whose last yearly revenue totalled 19.5 …
Seven days ago, May said that strategic British businesses would be protected from foreign takeover. Given what's already gone, I can't think of anything more strategic than ARM. So today Hammond says this means everything's great.
If Germany had an ARM, they wouldn't have let this happen.
The UK is at risk of having everything worthwhile bought up and dragged over the border.
The Dresden fabs are now owned by GlobalFoundries, who in turn are owned by the Emirate of Abu Dhab. So not much more then the physical fabs.
Note that the fabs (when built by AMD) where subsidized from Germany (and the state of Saxony) to the tune of 545 million Euros.
The UK is at risk of having everything worthwhile bought up and dragged over the border.
Already happened, many times over. e.g. In 1945 the largest sector in the UK was the aviation industry. Went to Farnborough airshow at the weekend - not a single British plane there except for a few antiques.
Well yes, it has happened many times before, but the UK aviation industry in 1945 had been driven by, thankfully, unusual circumstances for the preceding 6 years.
Until 1966, more than 20 years after the Second World War ended, as the trade show of the Society of British Aircraft Constructors, the Farnborough Airshow exhibited only British aircraft.
In 1964, it included VC10 and Trident airliners, Hunter and Lightning fighters, Vulcan bomber, BAC 221 delta wing plane, Harrier jump jet prototype, Turbo Skyvan and Andover transports, Jet Provost and Gnat trainers, HS 125, Hawker Siddeley 748, Beagle, Handley Page Herald, Shorts Belfast etc.
The UK is at risk of having everything worthwhile bought up and dragged over the border.
It has always been like that. We have the brilliant ideas and the ability to get them started but when support is needed to take them world wide it is not there. The department of trade and industry (or whatever its called now) and the foreign office are as useful for support as the proverbial chocolate teapot, and it is required today in the world of globalisation.
For some reason that I have never been able to fathom the government will bend over backwards to support the intangible 'industries', banks and the city, but not someone that actually gets their hands dirty by actually making things and this applies to both main parties. I expect that as soon as Reaction Engines have proved their engine the whole Scylon project will move overseas because the funds necessary to complete the project will not be there in the UK.
It has always been thus.
I don't think there is any inconsistency in the fact that successive governments will favour banking and finance over engineering and manufacture. The only concerns that ultimately profit from foreign acquisitions are the shareholder and (global) banker class whose interests I must sadly conclude our governments represent, and by that I mean the ones that have held power since 1979. If they want something to happen, they present it to us as a force of nature they have no control over. Nothing is further from the truth - they have had ample time - years in fact, to sort this situation out.
Considering the post-Empire delusions of grandeur and importance that remain entrenched in Middle English types who dominate the cultural and political direction of the United Kingdom, it always seemed ironic that the same types- or at least the people they voted for- seem inordinately keen on selling off national assets (which inevitably end up in the hands of foreign interests) for pennies on the pound.
As others have observed, this isn't new. Going back to the 80s Thatcher years, it always seems to have been the case that the Tories (and the post-Thatcher New "Labour"-in-name-only) have been perfectly happy to observe- and encourage- foreign takeover of UK companies that threaten to grow to any size of importance.
The Theresa May speech referenced may at first have seemed atypical in this respect, but as always, one judges the Tories by what they do and say in practice, not in airy speeches of principle. (#) Philip Hammond's crowing of this post-Brexit takeover as a good thing shows that everything remains comfortably consistent in practice.
(#) The most notorious example of this being, of course, Thatcher's One-Nationesque "where there is discord, may we bring harmony" speech upon her election. This coming from someone who went on to become not only one of the most divisive leaders in recent history, but one who was *intentionally* divisive, playing up "them and us" and demonising of whole segments of society. It will be understood why I was reminded of Thatcher's speech when Theresa May made similar touchy-feely One Nation noises upon *her* election. Not because she's a woman and tediously compared to Thatcher- the latter was the first PM I remember and thus her (and May's) gender wasn't and isn't an issue to me- but because it's an echo of such blatant hypocrisy by a party I don't believe to have changed its spots one bit.
So what do you recommend as a solution? If the UK government blocks foreign companies from buying UK companies, people will be less likely to start companies in the UK in the first place, because it makes them worth less when they can only be purchased by other UK companies.
This might be a reasonable strategy for something like defense companies, or their suppliers. But if you try to apply to any "big" UK company you'd just hurt yourself in the long run.
So what do you recommend as a solution?
Good question; and the answer would seem to require compromise.
Perhaps rules on the amount of foreign ownership of a native company which is allowed, so they can benefit from investment, we can benefit from that investment, but we reduce the risk of having the rug pulled from under our feet.
We do that anyway with rules which prevent single companies taking control of an entire sector and governments will often retain 51% control of critical industries.
The vultures (no offence meant) are circling.
Seen it all before. This is the whole business with Acorn all over again - those with only the bottom line in their best interest go after the money and will swallow any bullcrap in order (or ordure) to get their big payoff. Then the new parent decides that they don't want to keep the product in its original place and shift it overseas, always assuming that they keep it going at all (OK, it's unlikely that ARMs will cease to exist any time soon, but there are precedents).
Great. Super. (Yes, CJ)
Perhaps with the fall in the £ vs $ rate, it might temp Apple to buy them up
Cue much gnashing of teeth by the apple haters but this is business.
Anything of value here is now even more attractive post BREXIT for any overseas investor with the money (or even without it...)
Care to provide some examples where Apple "pick[ed] off the carcass once a firm has gone bust"?
Apple in fact tends to want to buy small pre-IPO companies for their technology or personnel. While they use Imagination GPUs, they also hired some top GPU designers who fled ATI after AMD bought them a few years ago, so there are persistent rumors that Apple will eventually design their own GPU core, just like they design their own ARM CPU cores.
To the extent Apple would be interested in buying Imagination, they'd only want the GPU related IP and engineers, not all the MIPS stuff, the outside licensing business and sales staff, etc. If they bought them they'd probably partner with someone else who was interested in that other stuff Apple isn't, and divide them up. But I think Apple buying them at all is unlikely, I'd say odds are good Apple will introduce their own design GPU core either this fall or next.
It's also private property, not covered by any particular legislation (for example, the laws refusing the selling of weapons to some bloke in the pub). If the gubbermint is permitted to tell people that they may not sell their private property to Softbank, is the taxpayer prepared to reimburse the shareholders for the lost sale?
It's also private property, not covered by any particular legislation (for example, the laws refusing the selling of weapons to some bloke in the pub).
The Government has a duty to protect the country's economic wellbeing. Banks, railways and energy companies are also private property, and the Government has certainly given itself a say there.
"The Government has a duty to protect the country's economic wellbeing. "
Happy with that. If selling ARM will ultimately cost UK taxpayer, in however we choose to measure it, more than we will gain by allowing the sale, then UK taxpayer via the government should think it a good deal to beat the offer price and purchase the company for the benefit of the UK.
It's immoral to have it both ways; if it's worth keeping, it's worth paying up for. I recall the the UK government put its money where your mouth is by buying large pieces of banks, subsidising railway companies (and stepping in when they collapse) and making various commitments in energy (including the high price per kwHr for electricity from that new nuclear power station, although I lost track of that - is it still on?). Want to preserve ARM as a UK company? Pay up.
The government has a duty to protect the country's entire wellbeing, both economic and non-economic. Ownership of ARM is ownership of the design of the most widely used microprocessor architecture in the world.
This is not an asset we should relinquish without national debate.
Pretty sure it is their chip designs that drive the majority of the world's smartphones. The ones using various ARM designed cores like the A57 and A72 outnumber custom non-ARM designed cores like Apple's A9 and Qualcomm's Kyro.
> "The ones using various ARM designed cores like the A57 and A72 outnumber custom non-ARM designed cores like Apple's A9 and Qualcomm's Kyro."
Kryo and Apple's A9 both implement the ARM instruction set. Apple and Qualcomm pay ARM royalties for the privilege.
"Pretty sure it is their chip designs that drive the majority of the world's smartphones. "
Depends what you mean by "chip design".
The RTL code is ARM's. Along with possibly some physical IP.
But the synthesis and physical implementation/layout won't be.
Christ, it's not just smartphones. They're just the headline makers.
ARM cores power the majority of all manmade objects which require computational logic.
Did you know that Windows laptops usually have more ARM cores than Intel ones?
There's an ARM core in the Bluetooth controller and another one in the WiFi and yet another in the USB controller. Probably another in the display and another in the hard disk. Sometimes there's even one in the keyboard and one in the trackpad.
Then there's an ARM core or two in your washing machine. Several in your car. There's probably one in your boiler. Your internet router is almost certainly powered by a couple of ARM cores.
Your TV has one. There's an ARM cortex in your car's remote keyfob, and in the spare key too. There's one in your burglar alarm. There's one in your kitchen scales and another in your cooker.
Smartphones aren't even the tip of the iceberg.
Frankly I suspect its a reiteration of the already planned growth.
In the long term this will be VERY bad for ARM and the UK:
the UK operation will be shut in favour of a more 'local' (or cheaper) option in China.
the profits will be offshored and no tax in the UK
the profits will be sucked up by softbank and not go into R&D so ARM will fail to keep ahead
The government should realise the strategic importance and block this.
Overly negative.
The engineers with the skills (which are NOT easily transferable) are not going to just up and move somewhere else. This is not a company that can simply up sticks and move to a cheaper area, and still succeed.
> The engineers with the skills (which are NOT easily transferable) are not going to just
> up and move somewhere else. This is not a company that can simply up sticks and
> move to a cheaper area, and still succeed.
All true.
So it will simply up sticks, and then FAIL.
Has happened before, will happen again.
"The engineers with the skills (which are NOT easily transferable) are not going to just up and move somewhere else."
All the chip-design folks I knew at British chip design firms that got bought, either moved abroad or moved to another sector. As charming as Cambridge may be, I don't see any reason to believe ARM will buck that trend. :(
Even so, Houser's not pleased.
>The engineers with the skills (which are NOT easily transferable) are not going to just up and move somewhere else.
Absolutely - ubergeeks given the choice of living through the recession in post-Brexit UK adjacent an imploding EU or getting a funded relocation to Tokyo with A1 healthcare and education for their families are going to think carefully about this for seconds - possibly even minutes.
ARM is an attractive investment, regardless of where it's based, and regardless of the outcome of the referendum.
And as for ARM being a 'strategic asset' which the government should 'protect', what does that really mean? The government has a poor track record of such a thing - usually the industries it 'protects' end up being sclerotic and dysfunctional.
The things we in the UK rely on - power, food, and, yes, electronics - all critical to our survival and supposedly needing of 'strategic protection' mostly come from abroad. For better or worse (I think better), we're living in an interconnected world - very much the world that ARM has flourished in.
Luckily for us, the politicians aren't very good at spotting and 'protecting' (i.e. suffocating) the next ARM.
>Can't see how this has anything to do with Brexit
It doesn't - the Pound crashing made it a lot cheaper, but the Softbank CEO said they were already committed to acquiring it either way....
>Luckily for us, the politicians aren't very good at spotting and 'protecting' (i.e. suffocating) the next ARM
UK politicians maybe - pretty sure the German Chancellor could rattle on at length about any technology you care to pick. The next ARM won't be developed in the UK - the company was a throwback to an era of British innovation which is gone forever - even in the 80s it was as anachronistic as it was wonderful.
"The Japan giant has committed to “at least” a doubling of ARM’s existing UK workforce, in addition to continued investment in the country, in addition to overseas expansion over the next five years."
Until they move the whole operation to eastern Europe to cut costs.
I'm not saying it will happen in this case but we've all seen it before.
The buyer gives everybody a speech about how fantastic the company it and it fits very well with the direction they want to go. They then say they're going to invest a few lorry loads of cash into all areas of the business. Then a few years down the staff get stabbed in the back.
Apple have an ARM architecture licence. They design their own ARM compatible chips. They run the same ARM instruction set as the official designs, but otherwise contain no ARM IP. They aren't the only ones to do this either (Qualcomm and nVidia do likewise).
That's part of the genius of the ARM strategy, they'll sell you pre-rolled designs for anything from an M0 micro controller through to a fully fledged A73 64 bit application processor, or you can buy off the shelf chips from their partner companies. If you're working in huge volumes though you can design your own from the ground up, save a little on the licensing costs and (possibly) create a more efficient design.
They run the same ARM instruction set as the official designs, but otherwise contain no ARM IP.
They license a bit more than just the instruction set: they get to customise the chips as much as they want.
save a little on the licensing costs and (possibly) create a more efficient design.
Having in-house chip engineers is almost certainly going to be more expensive than the licence costs. And even at Apple's volumes, it's cheaper to buy off-the-shelf chips than design your own. It's the ability to do whatever you want in hardware then is attractive. Apple has been able to make sure IOS and the chips work well together.
The standard ARM licence lets customers bolt together their standard bits of IP, and combine them with third party designs (you want a PowerVR graphics core rather than a Mali, certainly sir). The architecture licence lets them roll their own cores, with changes to things like the execution units (for higher IPC) or the memory manager (for higher throughput).
"Luckily for us, the politicians aren't very good at spotting and 'protecting' (i.e. suffocating) the next ARM."
The politicians don't even grasp how current technology operates, never mind future trends in the industry. The latter is hard enough for well informed techies, otherwise most of us would be lazing about in the bahamas fanning ourselves with wads of share certificates.
... imagine having to explain to Corbyn and McDonnell what ARM do and why they should care about it.
(or indeed May and Hammond, but the idea of explaining to to Corbyn and McDonnell seems funnier to me).
As a friend said, if this were an unsuccessful business being sold off, Corbyn, McDonnell and half of Momentum would be picketing outside the business by now.
(What is the next largest UK 'flag-ship' tech company now, anyway?)
I think long term ARM will be safe and stay in the UK.
Why?
Because they are being bought by a Japanese company and not an American one. The assets are the workforce and you cannot easily move them. The Japanese do seem to like doing business in the UK.
What ever happens, hope for the best.
The assets are the workforce and you cannot easily move them.
This may, considering the number of non-UK national engineers currently working at ARM, ultimately depend on political decisions taken about the free-movement of labour and just how welcome people feel. I mean, where would you rather spend a wet Tuesday in February - The Fens or Sophia-Antipolis?
In my experience, and many others I know, the best place to spend a wet Tuesday in February is in the job you love, with the people you love working in, in a stable and confident work environment,
If you are doing that you love and do well you can wait for 6 weeks holiday in the sun.
The assets are the workforce and you cannot easily move them.
What? You mean like Surrey Satellites? I think you'll find that engineers are often very happy to move.
No idea if relocation is on the cards for ARM. I think the first thing will be a bonanza for the tax consultants.
Since ARM mostly thrives from licences and patents, and not from manufacturing, the chief items of interest to any foreign buyer will be the intellectual property. Once they've got that, I would have thought there would be more than enough Japanese engineers who would be able to develop from that. And they will all speak the owners' language.
with a lifetimes experience? I think the last micro-chip that fitted in the head of one person was the Z80. I would think it would take and experienced CPU engineer a couple of years to translate their skills to ARM and another 3 or four for them to get a good feeling for how their area of the chip/architecture works with their nearest seven or eight colleagues in such a way they can make optimal improvements/customisations. I've worked with many people in my time who can be parachuted into a job and do a reasonable job in their own corner but very few who could walk the room and line all the desks up in a way that made them all more productive.
This is a symptom of something more fundamental : that the governing / management class have no national loyalty and are primarily motivated by short-term profit. Let this be a lesson to anyone who invests their heart and soul into something they don't ultimately own.
How can we avoid these takeovers from happening? Do we need a British conglomerate that is too large to be taken over? Or should we keep our startups privately funded with our own national crowdfunding?
The only motive I can think for selling is that we may be at peak ARM as the global sales of most of the devices that contain ARM cores are peaking or post-peak, with the possible exception of ARM-based servers. Nevertheless ARM must have value as an ongoing cash-cow.
In the long term, I wonder if an open processor core design could potentially displace ARM in the drive to lower costs? Does ARM have anything like the same grip on it's licencees as the Wintel monopoly?
Bullshit.
It's the typical Tory mentality that the fact a foreign company has bought out a UK business means it benefits the country. How? It benefits those with shares in the company yes, it doesn't benefit the long term prospects for those who work for that company. What then? No job, dole office, then the same Government will turn around and call them lazy and force them to work for the £40 a week while they have some dickhead in the job centre tell them they should give up trying to find a job in technology and focus on securing a job in the retail sector*.
* personal experience.
Of course it doesn't benefit the country, barely at all. It benefits the shareholders, the bulkhoding of whom will not be in the UK (their bank accounts won't).
But the government must try and make it sound like a positive. Especially now.
It's not a tory mentality thing, it's a general one, all the parties are the same.
I don't get the constant need to sell?
You have a company that sells a good service or product and thus make a profit, the share holders and employee's get a regular healthy chunk of change everyone should be happy.
You sell, the share holders get one 'final' chunk of change, the employee's carry on but start wondering when they need sharpen their CV's... to re-apply for their jobs or look elsewhere.
Why sell something that works!!!! I just don't get it.
Once you float your company on the stock exchange and dont keep a majority share-holding its pretty much compulsory.
I can also imagine for a lot of the top engineers (who I hope own a shitload of the shares) there comes a point where you get enough money to retire on waved in your face (the shares have gone up 500% or so in 4 years ish) and yo can carry on looking at 128bit chips in 15 years or a few tweaks on the 64 bit ones but you've probably climbed most of the fences and looked over walls and there isn't really a whole lot more to give you a major-league buzz in the same field.
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