Lost your proofreader already in the #Brexit?
Some duplicated paragraphs and the wrong currency symbol ("The pound fell Friday morning against the US dollar to its lowest level in 30 years – to £1.32.") makes me think El Reg was distracted today.
Crystal ball strokers at Gartner have calculated Brexit will wipe $4.6bn off the value of tech spending in the UK this year, and the resulting Sterling currency volatility will force US vendors to hike prices. Gartner hit the emergency button this morning following the vote, and re-forecast earlier projections from 1.7 per …
I can't remember any they've ever got right, but I expect that's selective reporting. I'm *assuming* that the ones we read about here are wild and wacky ones they issue to keep their profile up (a case of "there's no such thing as bad publicity"), and that the more boring reports that make their money (and which are only released to the people who paid for them) are sane.
Not anytime soon is my guess.
Irrespective of Brexit, the UK has run an appalling balance of trade (and payments) deficit for years and years now, and sterling should by rights have cratered a long time ago. In the first few months of such a change that is always negative because all internationally (invariably dollar) priced commodities become more expensive, and we import too much. This has been a contributor to the vast debt mountain that the UK sits on, although the failure of successive governments to match their spending to their income is also a big factor. Longer term, a weaker pound really helps our exporters, but it isn't a quick win, and government still need to stop spending more than they raise in tax.
The only reason sterling didn't go down before was that all the other genuinely tradeable currencies have their own macro-economic problems - mostly vast excesses of debt and unfunded welfare obligations.
There are some circumstances where the £ might recover - but driven by (for example) a collapse in Japan's moribund economy, by further shakedowns in the eurozone over the still unresolved southern european debt problems, by a hard landing and/or political instability in China, or similar global scale problems that make London look like a safe and receptive haven for hot money. Sooner or later some of those risks will crystallise.
Long and the short: The UK economy needed this exchange rate reset, we need to stay for a good while until (if ever) government gets the national books in order. But in the short term tech, energy, and imported goods will get more expensive.
While all this is true, and doesn't even mention the accounting fiddles that have kept tens of billions off the national balance sheet altogether, there is also a global race to the bottom for exchange rates - hence all the central bank interventions that are manipulating markets around the world.
Such comparisons invariably ignored the fact that the US prices always excluded any taxes, whereas the UK prices included them!
Current comments are that the top-end iPhone 7 will cost the same as the previous couple of models, i.e. $1050. From a UK perspective, we'll be paying an extra £100 if the current currency valuations were used to set the prices!
2016's biggest political and economic disaster will be on the other side of the ocean.
What would that be? We've reclaimed our sovereignty today. What did you do before breakfast?
The biggest economic and political disaster was, is, and will continue to be US foreign and "defence" policy, UNLESS you elect the Trump (and possibly not even then). We in the UK have shared in the misbegotten schemes, but with Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya all failed states, Iran and Russia resurgent, I think we know very clearly what the biggest disaster is. You're right it is an ocean or two away, but it has a stamp on the side of the box that says "General Issue".
"We've reclaimed our sovereignty today. What did you do before breakfast?"
I woke up in the freest country on the planet is what. USA! Sovereignty champions since 1776!
So, regarding Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc...., are you saying the UK only supported the US in those actions because of the membership in the EU? I imagine that relationship status will remain unchanged regardless of the Brexit.
Nothing has actually happened yet though, other than the vote?
There was no tsunami, no earthquake, no asteroid from space that wiped out the M4 corridor.
Nothing has changed, other than some guys typing numbers into computers followed by the words 'oh my godz PANIC!'
When the trade deals etc change for better or for worse, then sure, get the sandwich boards out and start parading up and down the high street.
Does anyone one else find it funny?
"Nothing has actually happened yet though, other than the vote?"
Well, Sterling fell to a 35-year low, $2.1tn was wiped off the global stock markets in one day, Scotland heads towards a second independence referendum, and there are quite a few reports of racist acts in the streets of a type we haven't seen since 'no blacks, no dogs, no Irish' days. The Prime Minister has resigned and nearly half the shadow cabinet has resigned.
Other than that, nothing much has happened.
And the stock value of British banks has just lost 30% or more ... If I were in the UK and/or paid in British pounds, I would be queuing before my bank branch getting my savings out converted to euro ... but that is just me ... you sure will be by the end of the week ... think 2008 again ... the longer you wait, the fewer euro you will get ...
"And the stock value of British banks has just lost 30% or more ... If I were in the UK and/or paid in British pounds, I would be queuing before my bank branch getting my savings out converted to euro ... but that is just me ... you sure will be by the end of the week ... think 2008 again ... the longer you wait, the fewer euro you will get ..."
Replace Euros with dollars and sure. They are also in for a big hit as it all looks a bit uncertain about the whole EU for as long as this debacle continues.
A friend of mine who works in the City transferred almost his entire savings account to a US bank, converting to dollars along the way, a couple weeks ago when everyone decided there was no chance of Brexit. His reasoning was that if Brexit failed then not much would happen because the markets were already assuming that. But if it somehow passed, he'd make some quick cash from the panic in the aftermath.
He predicted the pound would fall 20% if Brexit hit, but I guess he overestimated the panic. Still, he's not unhappy with the result, just trying to figure out if he should bring it back now or wait a few more weeks to see if there are further shocks.
>The UK could try to adopt the path followed by Norway, which is a member of the European Economic Area but not the EU. But that has drawbacks: it requires Britain to implement all of the EU’s rules without having a say in writing them.
>Jonathan Hill, the Briton who resigned at the weekend as EU’s commissioner for financial services, told the Financial Times that he was not sure an arrangement would work. “Most approaches that offer access come with free movement of people and I can’t see that flying given the weight of immigration as an issue in the referendum debate,” he said.
Britain, soon to be know as Europe's poor member ... ;-)
The world's governments are eager to let someone else handle their IT headaches, according to a recent Gartner report, which found a healthy appetite for "anything-as-a-service" (XaaS) platforms to cut the costs of bureaucracy.
These trends will push government IT spending to $565 billion in 2022, up 5 percent from last year, the analyst house claims. Gartner believes the majority of new government IT investments will be on service platforms by 2026.
"The pandemic sped up public-sector adoption of cloud solutions and the XaaS model for accelerated legacy modernization and new service implementations," Gartner analyst Daniel Snyder said in a release. "Fifty-four percent of government CIOs responding to the 2022 Gartner CIO survey indicated that they expect to allocate additional funding to cloud platforms in 2022, while 35 percent will decrease investments in legacy infrastructure and datacenter technologies."
The set of enterprise technologies acquired by Salesforce in recent years, together with its own applications, have proved "more difficult and expensive to govern than expected for many customers," says Gartner.
The global tech analyst offered a balanced view of the SaaS company in a research report, saying Salesforce was "strong" in both its strategy and corporate viability. However, its overall rating had fallen from "strong" to "positive".
For context, Gartner offers a five step rating, with the first three being "weak", "caution" and "variable." Salesforce's rating for products and services also slid, dropping from "strong" to "positive."
BCS, The Chartered Institute for IT, has warned that proposed changes to Britain's data protection rules must not put the flow of data between the EU and the UK at risk.
The professional body said the supposed benefits of a leaner data protection regime – something the government promised last week – should not come at the expense of the UK's current "data adequacy" arrangement with the EU.
The UK remained compliant with the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) when it formally left the EU at the end of 2020. Its interpretation of EU law meant that the trading bloc gave the UK an "adequacy" ruling, permitting data sharing across the border.
Oracle's pricing models and contracts can be "challenging to navigate" and "frustrating for customers," according to a Gartner report that otherwise heaps praise on the omnipresent enterprise software company.
The global analyst has published its vendor rating report on Big Red, judging the Larry Ellison-founded company to have a broad and competitive technology portfolio, a vertically integrated and mostly self-developed platform, and a proven track record in revenue retention, growth, and profitability.
But elsewhere Gartner found cause for concern. "Oracle's pricing models and contracts can be challenging to navigate, which, coupled to Oracle's focus on increasing cloud product revenue, can be frustrating for customers who wish to only maintain their existing on-premises commitments," the report said.
Global spending on public cloud services will come close to $500 billion this year, according to research firm Gartner.
Growing uptake of cloud-native infrastructure services is identified as one of the key drivers, but the trend towards hybrid work scenarios driven by the pandemic is also playing a part.
Gartner forecasts that the spend on public cloud services will grow by 20.4 percent this year to reach a total $494.7b, a rate of growth that the researchers believes will continue through 2023 to deliver a total of nearly $600b next year.
Updated A system vital to the flow of goods across the UK's border has suffered a devastating outage following a rush to implement it in time for the Brexit deadline.
Last night, the UK's tax collector's technical teams were struggling to resolve an outage affecting the goods vehicle movement service (GVMS), introduced to help managed customs tariffs after the UK left the European Union.
Dover District Council, the local authority in the busy port town that is closest to the European mainland, is preparing to declare a major incident as a 23-mile (37km) stretch of the multilane M20 highway remains closed to accommodate queuing freight.
Researchers at Gartner are finding that only 29 percent of IT workers globally have a "high intent" to stay in their current roles.
Younger techies are even less likely to stick around than their older counterparts, according to the survey of 18,000 employees conducted in the final three months of 2021 – with 1,755 of the respondents working in IT. The study found only 16 percent of IT workers aged between 19 and 29 plan to stay put, versus 48 percent for the 50- to 70-year-old bracket.
IT workers in Europe were most likely to remain loyal, at 40 percent, while 28 percent of those in the US said they weren't planning to move on. Australia and New Zealand had the most fleetfooted IT workforce: only 18 percent were intending to stay with their current employer.
Gartner has asserted that lead times for new networking equipment will remain long until early in the year 2023, and thereafter display "slow incremental improvement over the course of months."
The analyst firm offered that grim forecast last week in a document, obtained by The Register, titled "What Are My Options for Dealing With Long Lead Times on Network Equipment?"
Gartner reckons you have five options.
Gartner's latest set of public sector technology trends predicts, among other things, that a third of national governments (and half of US states) will have mobile-based identity wallets on offer by 2024.
Many of its other findings will come as no surprise for the enterprise technology world: cut down on the siloed quick-fixes and focus instead a modularity and integration.
Gartner reckons the 10 trends to look out for include "Anything as a Service" (XaaS), with 95 per cent of new IT investments being made in XaaS over the next three years.
UK minister for science and research George Freeman has admitted that vital EU funding for research is in limbo while the nation continues to negotiate Brexit sticking points, namely Northern Ireland and fishing rights.
Speaking to Parliament's Science and Technology Committee late last week, Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy minister George Freeman said the geopolitics of Anglo-European relations – in particular Anglo-French relations – around fishing and the Northern Ireland Protocol were complicating the decision over "association" with the European Commission's €95bn Horizon research programme.
"I think it's pretty clear that we're in a holding pattern, with our association not being granted," he told the committee.
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