back to article Gartner: Brexit to wipe $4.6bn off tech spending in Blighty

Crystal ball strokers at Gartner have calculated Brexit will wipe $4.6bn off the value of tech spending in the UK this year, and the resulting Sterling currency volatility will force US vendors to hike prices. Gartner hit the emergency button this morning following the vote, and re-forecast earlier projections from 1.7 per …

  1. erikj

    Lost your proofreader already in the #Brexit?

    Some duplicated paragraphs and the wrong currency symbol ("The pound fell Friday morning against the US dollar to its lowest level in 30 years – to £1.32.") makes me think El Reg was distracted today.

    1. allthecoolshortnamesweretaken

      Re: Lost your proofreader already in the #Brexit?

      Nah, they are all celebrating National Cream Tea Day.

      (Why isn't there a 'Cup of Tea' icon?)

  2. alain williams Silver badge

    In truth they haven't a clue ...

    so why not wait a bit for the dust to settle ?

    Oh, its Gartner: they make their living by puffing all sorts of reports and quietly forgetting the ones that are disasterously wrong.

    1. AMBxx Silver badge
      Joke

      Re: In truth they haven't a clue ...

      They have just as much experience in getting economic forecassts right as they do in getting other technology forecasts right.

      Oh, wait.....

    2. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

      Re: In truth they haven't a clue ...

      "quietly forgetting the ones that are disasterously wrong."

      Is anyone keeping score on Gartner predictions? I get the feeling they wrong more often than they are right.

      1. Ken Hagan Gold badge

        Re: In truth they haven't a clue ...

        I can't remember any they've ever got right, but I expect that's selective reporting. I'm *assuming* that the ones we read about here are wild and wacky ones they issue to keep their profile up (a case of "there's no such thing as bad publicity"), and that the more boring reports that make their money (and which are only released to the people who paid for them) are sane.

  3. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    ..when the pound will recover...

    Not anytime soon is my guess.

    Irrespective of Brexit, the UK has run an appalling balance of trade (and payments) deficit for years and years now, and sterling should by rights have cratered a long time ago. In the first few months of such a change that is always negative because all internationally (invariably dollar) priced commodities become more expensive, and we import too much. This has been a contributor to the vast debt mountain that the UK sits on, although the failure of successive governments to match their spending to their income is also a big factor. Longer term, a weaker pound really helps our exporters, but it isn't a quick win, and government still need to stop spending more than they raise in tax.

    The only reason sterling didn't go down before was that all the other genuinely tradeable currencies have their own macro-economic problems - mostly vast excesses of debt and unfunded welfare obligations.

    There are some circumstances where the £ might recover - but driven by (for example) a collapse in Japan's moribund economy, by further shakedowns in the eurozone over the still unresolved southern european debt problems, by a hard landing and/or political instability in China, or similar global scale problems that make London look like a safe and receptive haven for hot money. Sooner or later some of those risks will crystallise.

    Long and the short: The UK economy needed this exchange rate reset, we need to stay for a good while until (if ever) government gets the national books in order. But in the short term tech, energy, and imported goods will get more expensive.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: ..when the pound will recover...

      While all this is true, and doesn't even mention the accounting fiddles that have kept tens of billions off the national balance sheet altogether, there is also a global race to the bottom for exchange rates - hence all the central bank interventions that are manipulating markets around the world.

  4. tiggity Silver badge

    dollar = quid

    Given that de facto rule on pricing seems to be quid = dollar when comparing US prices to UK, I reckon big enough margins present to take up a bit of exchange rate slack

    1. Kevin Fairhurst

      Re: dollar = quid

      Such comparisons invariably ignored the fact that the US prices always excluded any taxes, whereas the UK prices included them!

      Current comments are that the top-end iPhone 7 will cost the same as the previous couple of models, i.e. $1050. From a UK perspective, we'll be paying an extra £100 if the current currency valuations were used to set the prices!

  5. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Whew!

    Thanks UK! If we Americans can vote down Trump this November, 2016's biggest political and economic disaster will be on the other side of the ocean. Yay!

    1. allthecoolshortnamesweretaken

      Re: Whew!

      If.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Unhappy

        Re: Whew!

        Or we could end up with this alliance...

        http://www.onlooker.press/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLv-5wTWIAE83Dj_750x410.jpg

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Whew!

      2016's biggest political and economic disaster will be on the other side of the ocean.

      What would that be? We've reclaimed our sovereignty today. What did you do before breakfast?

      The biggest economic and political disaster was, is, and will continue to be US foreign and "defence" policy, UNLESS you elect the Trump (and possibly not even then). We in the UK have shared in the misbegotten schemes, but with Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya all failed states, Iran and Russia resurgent, I think we know very clearly what the biggest disaster is. You're right it is an ocean or two away, but it has a stamp on the side of the box that says "General Issue".

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Whew!

        "We've reclaimed our sovereignty today. What did you do before breakfast?"

        I woke up in the freest country on the planet is what. USA! Sovereignty champions since 1776!

        So, regarding Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc...., are you saying the UK only supported the US in those actions because of the membership in the EU? I imagine that relationship status will remain unchanged regardless of the Brexit.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Whew!

          I woke up in the freest country on the planet is what. USA!

          Did you forget all about the FBI, NSA etc looking over your shoulder to check on everything you do?

          1. Mark 85 Silver badge
            Devil

            Re: Whew!

            Did you forget all about the FBI, NSA etc looking over your shoulder to check on everything you do?

            Why do you think he said that..?

      2. Jason Hindle

        Re: Whew!

        "What would that be? We've reclaimed our sovereignty today. What did you do before breakfast?"

        Hmmm.... So the other side thought "sovereignty" is more important than the economy? Never mind; the experts will be along soon enough.

    3. Pavel Ruzicka

      Re: Whew!

      Wait for the transatlantic Donald-Boris synergies!

  6. Pen-y-gors Silver badge

    Gartner again?

    If El Reg is going to keep on publishing Grtner's wild prognostications, could we perhaps have a daily horoscope and a series on the best tea for reading tea leaves? (I think Lester might have liked writing that last one)

    1. PNGuinn
      Paris Hilton

      Re: Gartner again?

      Nah - its National Cream Tea Day.

      Just extrapolate your predictions from a bit of fairy cake.

      And make sure the cake is in vacuuo and that the sheep doesn't eat it.

      Got to be more accurate than Gartner anyday!

    2. Pen-y-gors Silver badge

      Re: Gartner again?

      Ah hah, a down vote! That means at least one Gartner employee reads El Reg. is this where they get their ideas from? Should we be getting paid?

  7. a_yank_lurker Silver badge

    Gartner

    Gartner can not read tea leaves or chicken entrails correctly. If they say Brexit witl cause a drop in spending I expect the actual result to be an increase of double the amount they said it would go down. All I have is my navel and the fact Gartner is totally clueless.

  8. Goit
    Mushroom

    Nothing has actually happened yet though, other than the vote?

    There was no tsunami, no earthquake, no asteroid from space that wiped out the M4 corridor.

    Nothing has changed, other than some guys typing numbers into computers followed by the words 'oh my godz PANIC!'

    When the trade deals etc change for better or for worse, then sure, get the sandwich boards out and start parading up and down the high street.

    Does anyone one else find it funny?

    1. DavCrav Silver badge

      "Nothing has actually happened yet though, other than the vote?"

      Well, Sterling fell to a 35-year low, $2.1tn was wiped off the global stock markets in one day, Scotland heads towards a second independence referendum, and there are quite a few reports of racist acts in the streets of a type we haven't seen since 'no blacks, no dogs, no Irish' days. The Prime Minister has resigned and nearly half the shadow cabinet has resigned.

      Other than that, nothing much has happened.

      1. Hans 1
        Happy

        And the stock value of British banks has just lost 30% or more ... If I were in the UK and/or paid in British pounds, I would be queuing before my bank branch getting my savings out converted to euro ... but that is just me ... you sure will be by the end of the week ... think 2008 again ... the longer you wait, the fewer euro you will get ...

        1. DavCrav Silver badge

          "And the stock value of British banks has just lost 30% or more ... If I were in the UK and/or paid in British pounds, I would be queuing before my bank branch getting my savings out converted to euro ... but that is just me ... you sure will be by the end of the week ... think 2008 again ... the longer you wait, the fewer euro you will get ..."

          Replace Euros with dollars and sure. They are also in for a big hit as it all looks a bit uncertain about the whole EU for as long as this debacle continues.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Converting pounds to dollars

            A friend of mine who works in the City transferred almost his entire savings account to a US bank, converting to dollars along the way, a couple weeks ago when everyone decided there was no chance of Brexit. His reasoning was that if Brexit failed then not much would happen because the markets were already assuming that. But if it somehow passed, he'd make some quick cash from the panic in the aftermath.

            He predicted the pound would fall 20% if Brexit hit, but I guess he overestimated the panic. Still, he's not unhappy with the result, just trying to figure out if he should bring it back now or wait a few more weeks to see if there are further shocks.

  9. Hans 1
    Windows

    >The UK could try to adopt the path followed by Norway, which is a member of the European Economic Area but not the EU. But that has drawbacks: it requires Britain to implement all of the EU’s rules without having a say in writing them.

    >Jonathan Hill, the Briton who resigned at the weekend as EU’s commissioner for financial services, told the Financial Times that he was not sure an arrangement would work. “Most approaches that offer access come with free movement of people and I can’t see that flying given the weight of immigration as an issue in the referendum debate,” he said.

    src: https://next.ft.com/content/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7

    Britain, soon to be know as Europe's poor member ... ;-)

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