If a coachload of football hooligans vote to drive it over a cliff, some bits of the coach will remain intact.
If the United Kingdom chooses to leave the European Union – a so-called “Brexit” - Europe's information technology industries would not bat an eyelid and IT spending in the sceptred isles would only experience a “mildly negative” dip. That's the consensus opinion to which analyst outfit IDC is putting its name after polling …
And very much like what happens if the UK leaves Europe - until it happens, you won't really know "what's left". You never know, it might just be driver and a few front seat passengers
getting their comeuppance that take the hit. Then the rest can finally get off the bus like they wanted to all along
From what I can tell so far:
- if the UK remains in Europe, there is likely to be an economic slowdown that results in less government spending
- if the UK leaves the EU, there is likely to be an economic slowdown that results in less government spending
- the world economy is slowing, which is likely to result in less government spending
- regardless of the outcome, there will be job losses in the UK
- regardless of outcome, there will still be large numbers of migrants coming to the UK to provide (cheaper) labour as this has historically been how the UK has addressed labour shortages. The difference will be in the qualifications and likely origin of the migrants.
- if the UK stays in the EU, some exporters (UK/EU) will find it easier
- if the UK leaves the EU, some exporters (UK/EU) will find it easier
My summary so far? I'm not sure the result will matter...
Britain should be be like Jersey.....20% income tax......7% sales tax......full control of its its own laws and borders.......yes please let us turn Britain into the biggest offshore tax haven in the world complete with tax free manufacturing bases......just wait and see how many world names beat a path to our door then.....Apple..Amazon...just work your way through the alphabet.....then we might even be able to be fussy on who we let buy houses in the UK just like Jersey and Guernsey do now!
Not to mention no Health and Safety laws or the Working Time Directive, these are the only 2 laws I have heard specifically mentioned when Cameron and Chris Grayling were asked which laws specifically they wanted to "repatriate" from EU control.
Britain is sure to become a workers paradise for the low paid after a Brexit.
We had 'ealth and safety laws BEFORE the EU.............
the working time directive is bollocks because the crap employers make you sign the form saying you'll be happy to work over 48 hrs per week.
And its not much of a worker paradise if those workers with high skill levels wanting a better share of the profits sudenly find themselves out of a job because they've been undercut by a crap employer who pays min wage..
This is called beggar thy neighbour: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beggar_thy_neighbour
It won't work. Do you think the EU would not take counter-measures to deal with that? Like it or not, there is no rose-tinted past anymore to run back to you - we live ina globalised world now, and the best / only credible option is multilateralism: being part of a 500m population / developed world trading block is the most rational course. It's also, on the whole, what the younger generation wants: freedom to travel, work, consume, communicate etc accross borders, and they (we, I'm 33) are the ones who will have to live with the decision in the long-run.
Yes, because without the EU, travel, work and communication across borders will be made illegal and impossible. Just like Norway, Iceland, africa, asia, south america are not allowed to travel or communicate, since they are not a part of the EU.
This is a pure bullsh*t argument. For gods sake UK, please leave the EU, so the rest can follow. EU has absolutely no justification, and is a huge administrative black hole that just serves to enrich politicians at the expense of the people.
@LegalAlien The UK imports far more from the EU than it exports to it (and those exports have been dropping for over a decade now as the EU contracts). The UK constitutes between 0.5% and 1% of each EU country's economy, so if the EU decides to put up trading blocks they will only be harming themselves when we reciprocate.
The UK economy contracted by about 2.5% during the 2008 banking crisis, so how bad will it be on the continent if every economy contracts by 0.5% overnight? If the EU is mad enough to block trade with the UK they would only be harming themselves in the process.
One more thought: If the EU really is so vindictive and malign towards countries leaving, then surely we are better off getting out from being controlled by them?
>The UK constitutes between 0.5% and 1% of each EU country's economy, so if the EU decides to put up trading blocks they will only be harming themselves when we reciprocate.
Mathematics isn't your strong point, I take it? If Brits were to buy 5% less from EU, each EU country would scarcely notice (0.025-0.05% of their economy). If EU countries were to buy 5% less from UK, the Brit economy would be in trouble (2.5% of our economy).
Brexiteers keep saying "Of course they'll want to sell their goods to us" - as if that matters. What matters is - what would they buy from us? What could they not do without? Anything?
> If the EU is mad enough to block trade with the UK they would only be harming themselves in the process.
Yes, but if the UK makes a success of EU withdrawal then that will start a stampede of other countries to leave the EU.
It's therefore massively in the interest of EU bureaucrats to make the UK's exit as damaging as possible - even if that causes damage to the EU itself.
Re: Si 1
"One more thought: If the EU really is so vindictive and malign towards countries leaving, then surely we are better off getting out from being controlled by them?"
Forget the economic arguments - this alone is enough to justify leaving! With "friends" like this, who needs enemies?
"EU has absolutely no justification, and is a huge administrative black hole that just serves to enrich politicians at the expense of the people."
Firstly, the EU is many things: one of them is a free trade block, and that requires some degree of commonality in technical and labour regulations to ensure fair competition. Nobody with an understanding of how modern economies work can rationally argue that we would be better off outside that EU. And indeed Outers don't argue that:
"If the EU is mad enough to block trade with the UK they would only be harming themselves in the process."
Not, however, as much as the UK-minus-Scotland would already have harmed itself. Most of our free trade wins with most of Europe would stop dead on Brexit day, and would need to be renegotiated from a position of weakness.
As for the rest of the EU (human rights, treatment of refugees, freedom to travel, social security agreements, and just generally talking to each other) we would be exceedingly foolish to forget why we have these things: because national leaders who created them remembered two world wars, which were in fact European wars caused by stupid nationalism that went viral.
Britain should be be like Jersey
Jersey is like Jersey because it has a population of around 100,000 people. Like other tax "efficient" territories, it can offer foreigners a good deal because it only has to share the proceeds out amongst a small number of people.
Britain would have to raise 640 times as much tax (and 640 times the tax should be enough for anyone...) to get the same per-capita return from the same assets. so tax haven status is pretty much impossible for a country of any significant size.
And we are already very fussy about who can buy houses in Britain - it's only the relatively wealthy who have that option these days. I'm not sure what advantage would accrue by making home ownership even more exclusive.
Tiny problem with that is you're not a small tax haven with a tiny population and little or no infrastructure or defence requirement.
How are you going to run all the state services; NHS, Schools, Welfare, Roads,
Police, armes forces, Etc etc on 20% and 7% tax?
You'd be talking a MASSIVE drop in state income and either unsustainable borrowing or absolutely horrific cuts to basic services and mass layoffs of public servants.
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What I find interesting is quite how un-political most of the debates are. There's strong arguments both for and against from people at both ends of the political spectrum and everywhere in between. I find it great to be able to openly discuss the pros and cons without having to worry about offending anyone's political sensibilities.
The people who are coming off worse IMHO are those who seem to think the answer is obvious and doesn't warrant any discussion (i.e. most of the political establishment)
being spouted as truth by both sides of this that I am struggling to not switch the radio off when discussion starts.
This is a shame as it is important, but the 'debate' seems to be more a matter of using dubious extrapolations to beat up emotional froth. Finding hard facts or good analysis is almost impossible.
Politicians: a pox on the lot of them !
Too late, I've been doing that ever since the referendum was announced.
all this hot air is amazing. I do have one question though
Where is the Invisible Man a.k.a. Nigel Farage, then?
If he was so much in favour of us leaving why isn't he on every TV/Radio show, on the front page of the tabloids almost every day then?
Perhaps the 'out' campaign think he is far too much of a liability?
It's probably because of the stitch-up that got Vote Leave the official designation rather than the GO movement.
Now the media types that love the EU (like the EU-Funded BBC) have their ready-made reason not to invite Saint Nigel on anymore "Because he's not the leader of the official Leave campaign!".
"There is so much bollocks ... being spouted as truth by both sides of this that I am struggling to not switch the radio off when discussion starts."
This is how "democracy" works. The proles can't be trusted to hear the facts and make an informed decision. They must be bombarded with FUD from all sides, designed to elicit a visceral emotional response. Some of this is true and relevant, some is true and irrelevant, and some is untrue. In the end, it doesn't matter which, as long as it encourages sufficient people to vote their way the politicians don't care.
Fraser Cameron, a former senior adviser to the European Commission said
"Undoubtedly there is a growing trend towards referenda. There have been over 50 in the last twenty years. Sometimes referenda are forced upon governments if there is sufficient voter support, as was the case in the Netherlands… Perhaps it is time for an EU ban on referenda!”
We really need to grasp this opertunity to free ourselves from the unelected political elite of Europe. We won't get another chance and Dave and his recent deal have demonstrated how much we can influence the EU from within. Frankly arguments about being better or worse off or more or less IT spend are irrelevant.
"Fraser Cameron, a former senior adviser to the European Commission said"
By the sound of it, from the secure wing of a retirement home.
No likelihood of that, no more than any likelihood of a straightforward, facts only based referendum based on more than a binary decision is likely to happen in the UK.
This is just power games, a mystery play to pull the wool over the eyes of the electorate.
The commission reps are put forward for selection by the European Commission president like an unelected cabinet. The EU needs reforming along more representative and democratic lines, but the member countries political parties hold it back.
So yeah, whether you think you're giving the finger to the PM by voting out, or voting for in for security makes little odds in the long run. There'll be no workers paradise or return to empire and little chance of reform while the individual countries parties quibble over sovereignty and petty self interest.
"member countries political parties hold it back."
The member country political parties don't want to change the EU. The local politicians are generally a like minded political elite and being able to blame the EU for the unpopular legislation they want instead of being held responsible for it by voters suits them very well.
"giving the finger to the PM by voting out"
What? I will be voting out to make the PM more responsible for governing the country I live in so I will have more reason to give the finger to him, or not, at the next general election.
I have to say as an outside observer I'm actually shocked at how risky this strategy is.
Whatever your views are in the EU, opting to take a leap into the dark at a time when there is very poor global economic stability and a massive security crisis a migration crisis that's got nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with the Middle East is pretty stupid.
Twice in the last few years the UK has called into question very fundamental aspects of its existence : Scotland came close to leaving and now you're quite possibly going to leave the world's largest consumer bloc.
I think it's totally naive to assume that the UK has has no influence at EU level. If anything European policies are far more in line with British free market economics than with anywhere else and the UK has not only been hugely influential as the second largest country in the EU, but regularly plays very hard ball and punches way above its weight in negotiations.
You'd swear it was just this little put upon member that's dragged along for the ride when nothing could be further from the truth.
I think the UK has squandered a major opportunity over the years to actually take a leading role in the EU by just sneering at it and buying into tabloid "booo EU" nonsense.
You're now about to walk off into who knows what kind of future instead of actually engaging in a meaningful way and actually change things. Not doing a short PR stunt of Tory brinkmanship negotiation to "extract a deal from Europe"
All that's coming across to me is that the UK is politically unstable and will frighten investors with this kind of stuff.
You're also going to wreak havoc in Northern Ireland, until recently the most violent place in Western European by basically creating a situation where customs borders are likely to be reimposed as most of your commentators have completely forgotten that you've not only got an EU land border but probably one of the most successful examples of how opening a border brought prosperity and stability to a whole region. But, sure what does that matter, it doesn't concern tabloid newspaper sales.
All I know is this is going to bring instability. Not only to the UK but to most of your neighbours and to the global markets.
If our people feel that they are part of a great nation and they are prepared to will the means to keep it great, then a great nation we shall be, and shall remain. So, what can stop us from achieving this? What then stands in our way? The prospect of another winter of discontent? I suppose it might.
But I prefer to believe that certain lessons have been learned from experience, that we are coming, slowly, painfully, to an autumn of understanding. And I hope that it will be followed by a winter of common sense. If it is not, we shall not be—diverted from our course.
To those waiting with bated breath for that favourite media catchphrase, the 'U-turn', I have only one thing to say: 'You turn [U-turn] if you want to. The lady's not for turning.' I say that not only to you but to our friends overseas and also to those who are not our friends.