Having lived in the world of technology forecasting, I have a lot of respect for Gideon Gartner, whom I first met when he was director of Commercial Analysis for IBM, a long time ago. the Gartner Group has made a ton of money satisfying people's need to understand what is going to happen in the future, or at least, to make them feel that they can huddle together in a Group "The Gartner Group", pay Gartner $20K a year, and sit together enjoying the "Gartner" predictions and evaluations, without the slightest idea of what is going to happen next. If your company or project, or business enterprise is fucked, you can say, "How could this have happened? We paid the Gartner Group for their technology forecast, and their customized study, and we followed it."
The fact is, pilgrim, nobody has the faintest idea what is going to happen next. One thing is sure, the predictions of the Gartner Group, tainted as they are by all the money and flack coming into them by those who have an interest in "shaping expectations". These Gartner predictions, and the other "engagement consulting" crap they generate for which people pay $50K, and more) and
the resultant activity of the technology producers and consumers that these reports generate -- I don't know how to describe the results -- ludicrous.
The worst Gartner analysts are those who are the "best qualified" (e.g., 12 years progressive responsibility and experience in whatever aspect of the changing IT area they are covering), these people are useless, because they rely on what they know to tell you what is going to happen. They are wrong, obviously, because the future does not depend on the past. Perhaps you have noticed this.
The best Gartner analysts are those like that guy at Sotheby's who sold you that $20 million Rothko, (are you sure?) , who have a knack for conning the customer base. It's show business.