I wish it was option one
Most likely it will be the moist option. While we are moving towards the Elon Musk option, we are still not there yet. In any case, knowing him, we are more likely to find his base on an asteroid - something that makes both economical and technical sense. Bases on Mars and Moon are politico's dreams. Any sane engineer will chose something with a shallower gravity well as their first off-Earth base.