back to article IDC downgrades sales outlook for PCs AND tablets

Box-counter IDC has predicted further falls in PC sales and a slowdown in tablet sales growth. The firm says 308.1 million PCs made it out of the factory in 2014, but that just 293.1 million will do so in 2015. By 2019, it predicts that figure will fall to 291.4 million. The only PC product category IDC thinks will grow is …

  1. Peter2 Silver badge

    /me predicts further falls in brand new PC sales because most barely solvent businesses are buying refurbs to stretch their budgets.

    My budget is essentially "what we can afford when we can't afford not to spend it" at the moment. I'm getting shot of Pentium IV's running XP and replacing them with C2D's with Win7. My back of the envelope equipment plan is to replace the HDD's in the refurbs with SSD's (it's the only degrading component) to extend their life out to 2020 and then start putting the business back on a normal replacement cycle with new equipment (the replacement cycle stopped in 2007 when the economy went down like the titanic) if the company's cashflow continues improving in line with the economy.

    I know at least a couple of other businesses have broadly similar plans, so I would imagine that an awful lot of hard up against it businesses are doing similar.

    1. Trevor_Pott Gold badge

      You're wrong. The fact that the overwhelming amount of money from the "recovery" went to the richest few (instead of the working class) means that supply side economics will kick in any day now (if we'd just lower taxes on the rich!). The rich will reinvest in the economy. You'll get funding to grow your business and create jobs.

      ...won't you?

  2. Hans 1
    Windows

    Who needs more than a c2d to do office work (e.g. no 3d rendering or heavy photshopping) ?

    PC sales fell when MS released w7 because the OS, for once, ran acceptably well on antique hardware (XP-grade hw) - there was no need to upgrade the hw.

    Today, we have it even worse for hw, because a c2d or c2q is all you need, really, with an SSD as Peter2 says ... I think the PC will last longer than 2020, if the hw survives. I do not see businesses buying W10 en masse before 2023 because the benefit over 8.1 is negligible, afaics.

    1. dogged

      I agree that business won't buy hardware but it might go for the OS for two reasons.

      1. Free upgrade if you do it within one year of release, even from Win7

      2. It's even lighter and considerably better optimized than Win7 so crusty hardware is likely to last even longer.

      That means at almost no expense (install time, compatibility check) they can get money off the hardware bill for longer.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        @dogged - Those downvotes you got are not from me

        However, you seem to be missing the way medium and large enterprises are working:

        1- free upgrade means nothing because you still have to plan and execute a large migration which includes testing, application certifying, technical staff and end user training and so on. This is exactly enterprises are actively avoiding Linux at any cost.

        2- for the same reasons mentioned above, enterprises are avoiding migrations. They don't care about lighter and better optimized, the only thing that scares them is end of support although WindowsXP and Windows Server 2003 saga shows they can live just fine with that fear in their hearts.

      2. Richard Plinston

        > I agree that business won't buy hardware but it might go for the OS for two reasons.

        > 1. Free upgrade if you do it within one year of release, even from Win7

        'Free update' does _NOT_ apply to businesses, it is for consumers. Businesses will still pay the 'genuine advantage' or whatever else they are on.

        Also the weasel words 'free for the supported life of the device' plus 'Windows as a Service' implies that after the end of the hardware warranty period there will be a recurring charge. I would expect that OEM PCs would have that the price of the service within the warranty period to be included in the computer price.

        1. dogged

          > 'Free update' does _NOT_ apply to businesses

          Yes it does. It just doesn't apply to Enterprise editions. There are millions of SMEs out there running Win7Pro/premium who can upgrade for free.

          Also, I don't believe you about "weasel words". I might if it were anyone but you but your antipathy toward Microsoft and insistence on making up lies to make them look bad - pointless, considering how much better they are at making themselves look bad than you are - is rather well documented. I can easily go find examples from these very forums if necessary.

          1. Richard Plinston

            >> 'Free update' does _NOT_ apply to businesses

            > Yes it does. It just doesn't apply to Enterprise editions.

            So, you do agree that your blanket 'free in first year, even from Win7 ' was not correct, it is not everyone.

            Also, existing Software Assurance customers will still continue to pay and will get the upgrade within that "outside of this offer".

            > Also, I don't believe you about "weasel words".

            I seems to me that: "Myerson also branded Windows 10 as a "Windows-As-A-Service" platform" is a fair indication that Microsoft want everyone to be on some sort of 'Software Assurance' plan with an annual, or monthly, fee. What else would 'WAAS' be?

            > making up lies ... I can easily go find examples from these very forums if necessary.

            Fine, do so. They may be things that you don't like, that doesn't make them lies.

            1. dogged

              > a fair indication that Microsoft want everyone to be on some sort of 'Software Assurance' plan with an annual, or monthly, fee. What else would 'WAAS' be?

              An attempt to reduce their support base by having run _one_ version of Windows.

              And your Secure Boot FUD is littered everywhere and provably false. You keep posting it though.

              1. Richard Plinston

                >> a fair indication that Microsoft want everyone to be on some sort of 'Software Assurance' plan with an annual, or monthly, fee. What else would 'WAAS' be?

                > An attempt to reduce their support base by having run _one_ version of Windows.

                ... with a monthly or annual fee.

                > And your Secure Boot FUD is littered everywhere and provably false. You keep posting it though.

                Don't just make vague assertions, get an actual quote and _prove_ it is false.

                As the last comment that I made mentioning secure boot was over a year ago (I checked) I don't know where you got the 'keep posting it'. And that one certainly was not 'provably false', nor are any others.

  3. Longtemps, je me suis couche de bonne heure

    And the 2015 figure for Windows PCs is even lower

    because the IDC 293m for 2015 includes 20m Apple Macs, so the Windows PC figure for 2015 will be 273m. That is down from 350m in 2011. How are the mighty fallen...

  4. Mikel

    HP and Dell can cancel Christmas due to poor Windows PC sales

    What is that, five years running? Six? They may soon forget what holiday sales booms were.

    1. dogged

      Re: HP and Dell can cancel Christmas due to poor Windows PC sales

      I expect they're consoling themselves that Windows PC sales could fall by 99% and still exceed linux demand on the desktop.

      Or Mac sales.

      Sorry to pour cold water on your boner.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        @dogged - Re: HP and Dell can cancel Christmas due to poor Windows PC sales

        And nobody demands Windows either. It's like the belly button, it is very hard not to get one.

    2. Christian Berger

      Re: HP and Dell can cancel Christmas due to poor Windows PC sales

      Well the consumer (Christmas) market for Laptops kinda collapsed. Instead of buying overpriced unreliable consumer grade laptops, those now buy tablets or, if they are smart, refurbished business laptops.

  5. Ted's Toy

    PC sales

    When will all these pundits come to realize that the reason for the decline in sales can be sheeted directly to the O.S. being unacceptable to the users and that until something comes along that is acceptable the commercial sector will happily continue using what they now have. The so-called wiz-kid marketers are amiss in thinking that touch screen, new look OS will do something to arrest the decline in sales.

    The MBA.'s who believe that they are the only true font of knowledge are sadly mistaken. The successful enterprises are the one who are staffed by doers not talkers., who subscribe to the age old adage " if its not broke don't fix it."

    The brains of the OS world need to reinvent the wheel every 6 months just to show the world that they are indispensable.

    The hardware from 10 years ago is adequate to run most commercial operations.

    The power of a tablet CPU is all that is needed for the most of commercial operations., with the back office and design etc. are the only place needed for powerful CPU units. The cloud is and will continue to take the renew cycle away.

  6. Alan Denman

    Theres the dilemma in PC buying

    Those 9 year old old C2D are as good as new Bay Trail Celerons and Atoms.

    When new is not necessarily better then something has to give.

    The future is the PC on the stick, but lots of kicking and screaming will go on first.

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