I would like to see something like this happen to people who are actually RESPONSIBLE for the permacrap of all sort that's going down in the economic, political and ... err ... "surveillance" spheres. But apparently people thing it's more lucrative to go after some random underpaid guy in a lab coat.
Italian appeal court clears seismologists of manslaughter
The pain remains, but at least not the crime. In a case watched by scientists around the world, six Italian seismologists who had been found guilty of manslaughter for failing to predict the L'Aquila earthquake have had their convictions overturned by an appeals court. They had been sentenced to six years in jail and a fine of …
COMMENTS
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 08:57 GMT TitterYeNot
Re: And if I understand it correctly
Yup, my first reaction to this story was to get all unnecessary about foreign judicial systems and how utterly ridiculous they can be.
Then I remembered that I live in a country where you can be prosecuted, fined and lose your job for joking about airports on social media, and I shut up.
Laws and asses etc...
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 09:48 GMT Anonymous Coward
Re: And if I understand it correctly
While this is true, and really the people involved in the Chambers prosecution should perhaps have been suspended while other decisions they may have made were investigated, at least unlike Italy the CPS can't keep trying to get verdicts overturned. Whether or not Amanda Knox is guilty, for instance, the repeated appeals by the prosecution are a travesty of justice.
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 10:22 GMT Warm Braw
Re: And if I understand it correctly
The judicial system in Italy is overtly political and can be played endlessly by the rich and well connected. Hence, the Italians don't really believe in it.
The judicial system in Britain is covertly political. The occasional expendable member of the establishment fringe (Chris Huhne or Andy Coulson, for example) will be tossed into the fire to distract attention from the all the convictions for being Irish/Black/Muslim or from the harrassment of those having inconveniently accurate views on things like climate change. Unfortunately, the British seem to believe this is somehow better, despite the net result being essentially the same.
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 16:30 GMT Warm Braw
Re: And if I understand it correctly
Examples?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/feb/16/extremism-arrests-police-liberty-central
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/climate-change-protesters-have-convictions-quashed-due-to-met-police-spy-at-drax-plant-demonstration-9075101.html
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/jan/11/police-reform-mark-stone-terrorism
The police act as agents provocateurs to stack up the evidence against people with views that are considered unacceptable - ie any political views that are not supportive of the status quo - and the courts happily convict them. Until jourmalists start digging the dirt. The outrage that I might be suggesting such a thing clearly proves my point.
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 08:54 GMT Anonymous Coward
At last, a sane ruling from an Italian court.
The original convictions should never have be made in the first place. in fact the charges where obviously some chair-warming bureaucrat’s attempt at pre-emptive blame management. Earthquake prediction is not a precise science; in fact it is closer to guess work sometimes as any seismologist will tell you.
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 09:10 GMT Mr C
They told us to get out at 11:53 am
Back in '99 we had a big earthquake here (in Greece)
Seismologists where all over the news predicting the next big killer aftershock.
I remember that being on a thursday, at 11:53 am.
Which means that our building (and others as well) was -unofficially- evacuated a bit before that ('better-safe-than-sorry') and we gathered in the street to wait for 11:53... tension rose and people were nervous and afraid
Guess what.. 11:53 came and went and nothing happened. .DUH
This ticked off the general populace slightly. After that my wife at some point started beating on me in the middle of the night in her sleep because she had this nightmare of a seismologist on TV telling us the next time a earthquake would strike. (she claims she didn't remember but i think she enjoyed it :P)
Morale of the story is that earthquakes cannot really be predicted.. no really
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 10:49 GMT Anonymous Coward
They predicted there WOULDN'T be an earthquake
Time to be fair to Italian judges.
They know perfectly well that you can't predict earthquakes. And by the same token, you can't predict that an earth quake will NOT occur.
But that's just what this committee did - they said people would be safe to stay in their houses. Many did stay, and died as a result.
I still think science policy advisers should not be prosecuted, but they (and their lead civil servant) certainly attempted to make a prediction that they should not have made.
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 11:44 GMT I ain't Spartacus
Re: They predicted there WOULDN'T be an earthquake
As I understand it, their prediction was that there was no more risk of an eathquake than normal. Despite the fact that there had been some recent tremors. In an area where there are always tremors.
So if you live in an earhquake zone, that's the risk you accept. If you don't like it, either move, or live in a nice soft tent, where you don't care if it falls on you. Those are the choices. Or to stay in your homes, schools and offices, and live your life as normal. Accepting the extra risk every day.
When we have a method of predicting earthquakes, we can revisit this.
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 11:57 GMT Anonymous Coward
Re: They predicted there WOULDN'T be an earthquake
I'm going to try to explain why this is a stupid post.
But first, what Nature had to say on the original convictions:
"Science has little political clout in Italy and the trial proceeded in an absence of informed public debate that would have been unthinkable in most European countries or in the United States...The verdict is perverse and the sentence ludicrous. Already some scientists have responded with warnings about the chilling effect on their ability to serve in public risk assessments."
According to you, a seismologist can't predict that an earthquake will NOT occur. Correct. So are you currently holed up in a tent in a field with tinned food, Calor gas and a lot of metal water containers? Because they can't predict that one will not occur right where you live, tomorrow. Now, what will happen if six seismologists go on TV tonight and announce that they cannot rule out the possibility of a destructive earthquake near theSkipper's home?
That's right, panic. Which could be more dangerous than a minor eathquake.
The scientists did not of course say that people were safe to stay in their homes. They said that, based on the best knowledge available, there was not a high risk of an earthquake. But two things went wrong:
1. People failed to interpret the statement correctly. People are poor at understanding statistics and risk, and they did not understand that "not high risk" is not zero risk.
2. Decades, if not centuries, of corruption in Italy meant that houses and infrastructure in earthquake areas had been built without regard to proper safety standards.
The result was that an earthquake which would have annoyed a few people in Tokyo killed a lot in Italy, and the politicians and the mafiosi who were responsible and wanted attention diverted from the reason why all those houses fell down, went after the scientists whose hands did not stroke the back of another's, i.e. who had no power. And they were able to do this unchecked because the Italian media was controlled by the politico/mafiosi system, and the judges are also bought by the system.
I am not convinced that a similar cock-up in this country would reveal our level of corruption to be that much lower, but at least we would be likely to turn on the Government rather than scientists.
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 12:55 GMT albaleo
Re: They predicted there WOULDN'T be an earthquake
I upvoted theSkipper because his description matches my memory of the event. You say that people failed to interpret the statement correctly. The Nature article has this quote from the official: “the scientific community tells me there is no danger because there is an ongoing discharge of energy”. I can't imagine any official announcement in Japan using the words "no danger", and especially not following a series of tremors. That quote doesn't come from the mouths of the scientists, and so I don't know exactly what they said to the official. Their lawyer said this, "...the scientists could not be held accountable for De Bernardinis's reassuring statements, and that the scientific opinions given by seismologists during the meeting were ultimately correct." It seems the judges may have accepted this, which is why the official's conviction still remains.
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 17:13 GMT Anonymous Coward
Re: They predicted there WOULDN'T be an earthquake
So it was one official that got it wrong. I stand corrected. But in this country people ignore science on drugs policy, or even lie about WMDs, people die but the officials are not punished. It was Kelly ended dead, not Campbell. My point - about the scapegoating of the powerless - I think still stands.
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 11:50 GMT Anonymous Coward
Same with the 2011 Christchurch, NZ earthquake
There had been a 7.1 on 4 Sept 2010 some distance from the city and a aftershock sequence was still on-going, I landed in NZ at 10:30 on 22 Feb and there had been a minor (a 2 or a 3) shock that morning.
At 12:51, a 6.3 struck, 5KM from the city centre and 5KM deep. An MMI of IX - Violent.
Was there any recriminations for the GeoNet people?
No.
Why not?
This is because Kiwis understand earthquakes cannot be precisely predicted by their nature.
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 18:22 GMT Steve Aubrey
Natural Kiwi
If Kiwis are so smart and mature, by their very nature, we shiould elect a Kiwi into every political position available, regardless of the country or responsibility. We need Kiwis everywhere!
(Grocery stores naturally excluded - although if the price of a politician falls to the price of a fruit -- naah, not going there.)
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 18:55 GMT Conundrum1885
Re. predictions
Pridincting earthquakes is like trying to predict storms: sometimes you get it right, sometimes you don't.
There are ongoing research projects studying radon releases as these could *maybe* be linked to temblors and a sudden change in magnitude of the leakage can be evidence that the plates are "hung up" and a major quake is imminent.
I am actually looking into this and so far Radu Motisan's radiation network looks promising as many many sensors = more ground covered.
If several in the same area show a sudden change then bad things could be imminent.
Also relevant are geomagnetic fields as these are linked to underground rock movement, in this case changes in geomagnetism in an area suggest activity in the tectonic plates.
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Tuesday 11th November 2014 22:45 GMT Henry Wertz 1
Thank goodness for those seismologists
"Nature, which had earlier called the conviction “perverse” because it would chill scientists' willingness to give honest opinions, reports the acquittal here."
It was quite perverse -- I mean, there had been a seperate instance in Italy where they had charged some other seismologists for something like "causing a public panic" for "predicting" an earthquake when there wasn't one.
"But that's just what this committee did - they said people would be safe to stay in their houses. Many did stay, and died as a result."
Seimsologists don't say this kind of thing. They will say something like "there's an x% chance in the next y weeks/months of a major event." Which I'm sure they did -- it was up to people who don't understand how statistics and estimates work to turn that into "there will be" or "there won't be" an earthquake.
Frankly, if they had predicted there "would" be an earthquake, it would probably not saved a lot of people anyway, because earthquake predictions are NOT "Shit! Run for it, earthquake at 2 o'clock!!!" they are "There's a 65% chance of a magnitude x or greater within the next 2 weeks", and I doubt people would have stayed out of their homes and vigilant for that long.
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Wednesday 12th November 2014 05:49 GMT Anonymous Coward
Be careful what you wish for
Two words. Spanish Inquisition.
Held back science for centuries, because a few guys in red robes felt that questioning doctrine was heresy, even with overwhelming evidence that said doctrine was wrong.
Was reading somewhere that they are still going, except this time the "doctrine" is the Standard Model and the "heretics" are the folks that have found new physics that suggests things like techni-Higgs and other "Fun Stuff" like MiHSC that can explain the lack of observable dark matter by using modified inertia.
The same logic that "found" the Higgs still can't explain rare phenomena like ball lightning despite 80 years of trying, and without an understanding of quantum gravity it never will.
Also worth examining as far as quantum gravity is concerned is the observable gravitomagnetic London moment documented by Dr Tajmar suggesting that spinning superconductors can actually warp space/time.
The effect seems to occur both with superfluid helium and Type 1/ Type 2 superconductors and induces a clear acceleration signal that suggests a theory of quantum gravity could be constructed by modified inertia without contradicting GR and SR.
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Wednesday 12th November 2014 13:28 GMT Faux Science Slayer
Seismic/Tectonic Solar Link....
Earth has over 2 million cubic miles of fissionable Uranium and Thorium, under high heat, high pressure and variable solar/cosmic particle bombardments, causing VARIABLE rates of fission. This variation sets the baseline for glacial/interglacial extremes and is the prime factor in climate change.
See, "Motive Force for All Climate Change" at ClimateRealist, May 2009 and the Geo-nuclear tab at the FauxScienceSlayer website. There is presently no al-Gore-rythum to describe this complex interaction, however, UK Astrophysicist Dr Piers Corbyn has shown a high statical correlation of solar cycles and Earth's volcanic cycles. A detailed research showing direct correlation of USGS seismic and NOAA PDO temperature data has been boycotted by the AMS for "opposing the AGW hypothesis", but peer review is pending. We have been SYSTEMATICALLY LIED to about everything.
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Wednesday 12th November 2014 17:00 GMT MrZoolook
Surely they should sue (insert God of choice here)
After all, it was (insert God of choice here)'s deliberate choice to actually CAUSE the catastrophe. The scientists merely acted on the available information at the time.
Fucking idiot court should throw this out with no right of appeal.
When I'm king... etc.
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Tuesday 18th November 2014 08:49 GMT Anonymous Coward
Re. MiHsC
see http://www.physicsfromtheedge.blogspot.com/
MiHsC also could be reasonably applied to any system with an edge be it electromagnetic, gravitational OR electrostatic.
Using it to explain observed anomalous heat production in LENR is a hypothetical but promising avenue of research as the gaps between the nickel particles could be interpreted as cavities permeated by Unruh radiation, if so then it could also explain the solar coronal heating problem and other as-yet-unexplained physical phenomena.