back to article PEAK APP: After 2013, you'll NEVER again install as many – Gartner

It's peak app time, according to tech analyst Gartner, which claims the average user will never again download as many apps as they did in 2013. The beancounters say that growth in the ecosystem is now reliant on new users joining the throng. The peak is 4.9 downloads a month for iPhone owners, and 6.2 for those packing an …

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  1. Khaptain

    "The peak is 4.9 downloads a month for iPhone owners, and 6.2 for those packing an Android handset"

    Are these the figures for someone that has just bought a new smartphone and does it includes "updates. "

    After the fad has worn off and you have made your little collection of usefull things, I think the majority would then be downloading about 3 or 4 per year..... Unless were talking about the under 16 year old group.

    1. Anonymous Custard Silver badge

      App of the Day

      The exception could also be people who use the various "app of the day" promotion apps or features (like the one in the Amazon Appstore). Can sometimes throw up stuff which is unknown but potentially useful or diverting (along with a lot of dross, irrelevant stuff and replica games too).

      I've discovered a few apps that way, plus had a few free upgrades of apps I already used to the "pro" version (or a version that's essentially pro, or at least more fully featured or ad-less) so I'd say in my case I'm more 1-2 apps downloaded per week than 3-4 per year.

    2. Don Jefe

      Those figures are for the analyst(s) that wrote the report and for journalist fodder. That is all. They have zero relevance in the real world and there's a 50/50 chance they were completely fabricated or extrapolated solely based on the report authors app purchase habits.

    3. P. Lee

      I get the feeling most app updates are not even bug fixes. They just want to get the app name in front of you in case you've stopped using it. It is just advertising.

  2. Tom 38 Silver badge
    Mushroom

    When is Peak Gartner?

    1. Pen-y-gors

      Yep

      Why does anyone continue to waste time printing the (presumably) alcohol-fueled ravings of these 'industry analysts'? They are totally meaningless.

      1. Don Jefe

        Re: Yep

        Gartner don't sell market reports. They sell cite-able information for execs and salesmen to plug into slideshows and investment pitches. Kind of like a cheat sheet for adult 'Ad Libs' (anyone remember those). I guarantee they've got another report that predicts future growth of the app market.

    2. BigAndos

      Didn't they say we'd all be using Windows Mobile by now?

    3. theblackhand

      Re: When is Peak Gartner?

      I predict we will reach peak Gartner when their predictions are backed by more than 4 out of every 10 fortune tellers/mystic of your choice....

      Or you could just stick with the reliable prediction of "Gartner will be proved wrong within 2 years"....

    4. Solmyr ibn Wali Barad

      "When is Peak Gartner?"

      When was. Honestly, can't remember.

  3. Alan Bourke

    I think this horse has definitely bolted

    just in time for lots of people coming up with app development skills hoping to write the next Angry Birds. Only a very, very few apps ever make any real money once you've been violated by the T&C's of whatever platform it is.

  4. Captain Scarlet Silver badge
    Paris Hilton

    Hmm

    Does this take into account whingy old farts like me?

    I got fed up having to get apps to do what I want my phone to do so I now buy a phone based on what it can do without requiring apps, so I got a Blackberry (So I am stuffed anyway if I do need an app for something it doesnt do)

    1. Don Jefe
      Joke

      Re: Hmm

      You should write Blackberry and tell them you've shorted their stock and would like a desktop stock ticker and messaging app so you'll know when you're rich and can automatically inform everybody in your contacts list!

      1. Captain Scarlet Silver badge

        Re: Hmm

        I have visions of the Q10 which I have dropping to rock bottom prices soon, so I need one to say when I have been a tool yet again for paying to much for something.

  5. david 63

    I think it was 1999 they said there was no more code to be developed. Muppets of the first order.

  6. ecofeco Silver badge

    Peak Download?

    I wonder if this "study" includes the crapware I and others have deleted?

    Which, for me, turned out to be more than the apps I added. (I'm that guy who even disabled the GPS and has the WiFi on manual and told Google Maps to fuck off)

    1. Philip Lewis

      Re: Peak Download?

      And her I thought it was just me. Enter BattSaver app

  7. Peter27x
    Coat

    hmmm

    so what they are saying is that Windows Phone is actually ahead of the curve then...

    (confession, I am a WP Owner)

    1. oolor

      Re: hmmm

      Well played, sir, well played.

  8. RobHib
    Facepalm

    And the band played "Believe it if you like".

    ...And the band played "Believe it if you like" and it rained bullshit all day!!

    No doubt, there has to be rationalisation, and no doubt people are tiring of installing apps but to think installing is going to go away anytime soon is a pipe dream. As soon as the next tech craze happens the whole exercise will happen all over again.

    Why? Because AI is nowhere sufficiently developed to create workable and creative applications on-the-fly at the user's whim.

    I wish it were (and I can hardly wait). But we've been waiting for 60+ years (since Turning enunciated the idea in the early 1950s) and we're still waiting with bated breath.

  9. Martin Budden
    Stop

    In-app purchasing is evil and should be banned.

    That is all.

  10. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    I'm..... A, A, P, P, Y

    I'm..... A, A, P, P, Y

    No more time wasters for me.

  11. Potemkine Silver badge
    Trollface

    We know now they use two ten-faced dices, one for the integer and one for the decimal.

  12. Dharmesh Mistry

    Totally off beat, we are no where near saturation of apps...

    http://blogs.computerworlduk.com/facing-up-to-it/2012/07/developers-in-short-supply/index.htm

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Not offbeat at all matching your 'blog to the article here. I assign zero credibility to anything Gartner asserts. Economically speaking, we have massive demand for useful apps but the supply of labor is in short supply. You can witness that looking at IT employment and pay during the Great Recession and beyond. Nowhere near a bad a situation in other sectors, although still pretty damned bad for some.

      Right now, I'm dragging the place I'm staying at into the 21st Century, kicking and screaming. Theoretically, any device should, with the proper interfaces built, be able to talk to any other device and you'll definitely need "An App for That." So in that sense, there is plenty of opportunity out there beyond apps for legacy silo's. And the poor souls doing just that (legacy) are in demand as well.

      [Nice 'blog. Bookmarked.]

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