No scientific consensus' on sea-level rise?

This topic was created by dgharmon .

  1. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    No scientific consensus' on sea-level rise?

    "There is no scientific consensus' on sea-level rise, say scientists"

    You're reading stuff in that isn't there. The uncertainty is just how much ice melt contributes to oceanic warming. Nowhere in the article do they question that oceanic warming isn't occurring.

    Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion, March 2003

    REF: 'no scientific consensus' on sea-level rise`, The Register Article

    1. tonys66ca

      Re: No scientific consensus' on sea-level rise?

      Climate will likely warm over the long haul (10's to 100's of thousand years) as Mother Earth continues away from the temperature minimum reached during the last glacial stage. Along the way, there will be climate perturbations of warming and cooling superimposed on the longer-term trend to that maximum temperature. Then our planet will likely cycle toward another glacial period (assuming the cycles of the past 2M years continue). As this happens water levels will rise again and will certainly fall as we move into another ice age. How much? Sea level has been more than a few feet higher and likely will be again. How quickly, no one knows, but modelers certainly aren't afraid to guess. Scientists don't guess and don't depend on model predictions (few models have been correct). How much will our behavior change an earth trend? Not as much as volcanic activity, impact of a large meteor or asteroid, or changes in solar activity. Some humans are egotistical believing humans are the most important factor. Nonsense. We may be a factor, but likely not a major factor.

      Many earth scientists recognize much of the temperature increase we've experienced during the past century is likely overcoming the drop in temperature resulting from the last little ice age more than 100 years ago. And most non scientist recognize the little ice age that cooled the earth about a thousand years ago (back when Greenland was named by the Vikings).

      Humankind is adaptable; more adaptable to natural climate fluctuations than were cavemen. We should focus more on the likelihood we have little to no control over major climate fluctuations. As happened in the recent geologic past, sea level will likely rise or fall a great deal during the next 100,000 years. During the past 2M years sea level has been about 450 feet lower and more than 100 feet higher. We must be prepared to adapt, not waste our lives playing god believing we can change the inevitable.

  2. Martin Budden Bronze badge

    or perhaps not

    ...seas might rise in the coming century, which is perhaps the primary reason to be concerned about global warming...

    Do you think so? It is possible for everyone to avoid swimming by moving to higher ground (in most cases that's only a very short distance away). On the other hand increasingly extreme weather events can hit anyone anywhere, and a change in climate would have a significant impact on agriculture.

  3. Joel 1

    The rise and fall of sea level

    There was an interesting article in New Scientist <http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21829151.900-where-melting-ice-means-retreating-seas.html> which detailed the effect due to local gravity from the ice mass.

    Basically, the large mass of ice attracts water to it, so the water piles up against the ice sheet flanks. If the ice melts, this mass is removed, and so this attractive force disappears, and the water slumps back. Thus, around the melted ice cap, the sea level can actually fall.

    As we are talking about water, this change in level will happen very rapidly. People have been aware of land rebounding from under the weight of icecaps (still happening today from the last ice age), but that happens on a much longer time scale.

    Of course, the water that leaves the areas around the ice caps has to go somewhere, so other areas will experience much greater sea level rises than suggested by the change in mean sea level. It also makes a difference which ice cap melts first...

    As with so much of this area, it is far more complex than you would initially expect.

  4. cortland

    FWIW department

    "No scientific consensus'" is brought to us by people who'd call 50.05 percent a mandate.

    1. pɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ

      Re: FWIW department

      if the mandate requires greater than 50% then it is.......

  5. JamesTQuirk

    duja Vu ?

    Maybe the Dinosaurs had same Convo ... but about whether the light in sky was a threat ?

    Prepare for all eventual possibilitys, and hope you dont need them is militarys answer, it should be ours with Climate Change, amongst other things, Re-engineeering everything to low power usage is a good thing, making coastal life safer is a good thing, Spreading low cost systems for Power/Water etc is a good thing, it makes jobs, servicing & installing, constructing all of that, so why not .....

    But sitting very near the currently burning blue mountains, while these lunatics play monopoly with thier lives in the Greater Sydney BASIN, I feel nearly assured that old mother nature will sort the buggers out show what the real world is about ....

  6. Fermer

    The seasonal increase in water level of the seas and oceans

    Forum of Moscow State University Chair of Hydrology http://www.geogr.msu.ru/forum/index.php?PAGE_NAME=read&FID=4&TID=77&TITLE_SEO=77-sezonnoe-povyshenie-urovn_ya-morey-i-okeanov

    Waters of lakes, seas and oceans of the northern hemisphere rotate counterclockwise, and the waters of the southern hemisphere rotate clockwise, forming giant whirlpools.

    The main reason for the rotation of the whirlpools are, local winds, flowing into the seas and oceans of the river and the deflecting force of Coriolis.

    And the higher the speed of the winds, the higher the rotation speed of the whirlpools, and as a consequence, the higher the centrifugal force of the whirlpools, thereby raising the level of the waters of the seas and oceans.

    And the lower the rotation speed of the whirlpools, the lower the water level of the seas and oceans ..

    The speed of the currents along the perimeter of the seas and oceans is not the same everywhere and depends on the depth of the coast.

    In the shallow part of the seas and oceans, the current moves rapidly, and in the deep-water part of the seas and oceans the current moves slowly.

    Seasonal water level rise is not observed throughout the coast of the seas and oceans, but only in those coasts where the high angular velocity of the currents and as a consequence, the high centrifugal force of the water. (Centrifugal force F = mv2 / r).

    On the rectilinear coasts, where the currents do not have angular velocity, the water level does not increase.

    The waters of the Gulf of Finland rotate counter-clockwise, forming a whirlpool in the form of an ellipse.

    And when the seasonal south-west winds untwist the whirlpool to 5 km / h, the centrifugal force of the whirlpool increases, so that the water level rises to 30 cm on the eastern coast of the Gulf of Finland.

    A similar scheme of seasonal water level rise is observed in all lakes, seas and oceans ..

    The average depth of the Gulf of Finland is about 50 meters, on the east coast about 5 meters, in the west of the bay about 100 meters, for this reason, on the eastern coast of the Gulf of Finland, the linear and angular velocity of the currents is much higher (by how much less the depth of the coast, ) ..

    In the Gulf of Finland, the seasonal increase in the water level has two peaks: in August-September, and in December-January and coincide with the season of south-west winds.

    The current velocity in the Gulf of Finland reaches from 2 to 17 km / h, and the maximum current speed on the Earth reaches 30 km / h, the wind speed is more than 100 km / h.

    http://goo.gl/eYVTo6

    http://esimo.oceanography.ru/esp1/index.php?sea_code=1§ion=6&menu_code=1734

    The waters of the Caspian Sea rotate counter-clockwise, forming a whirlpool in the form of an ellipse.

    And when the seasonal winds and flood river Volga unleash the whirlpool, the centrifugal force of the whirlpool increases, due to which, on the northern coast of the Caspian Sea, the water level rises to 1 meter.

    The average depth of the Caspian Sea is about 200 meters, on the northern coast about 5 meters, on the southern coast about 700 meters.

    Due to this, in the north of the Caspian, the current speed rises from 1 to 10 km / h.

    In the Caspian Sea, the peak seasonal increase in water levels is observed in June-August and coincides with the season of winds, and the flood of the Volga River.

    During the drought over the Volga river basin, the level of the Caspian Sea does not increase.

    http://tapemark.narod.ru/more/06.png

    http://goo.gl/47tXq2

    During the season of the western winds, the current velocity along the Murmansk coast of the Barents Sea rises to 5 km / h, due to which the seasonal rise in the water level reaches 0.5 meters.

    The maximum level values ​​are observed in October-November minimum in April-May.

    http://proznania.ru/?page_id=2353

    In the Bay of Bengal in the season of monsoon winds, the whirlpool speed rises to 10 km / h, due to which, the seasonal rise in water level reaches 1.2 meters.

    http://www.aziya-tur.ru/bengal%27skii-zaliv.php

    Seasonal changes in the level of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk are 0.2-0.5 m. The highest levels are observed in November-January, the smallest in March-April.

    http://parusa.narod.ru/bib/books/fareast/1406-1.htm

    Seasonal increase in the level of the Black Sea (up to 40 cm) is most pronounced in the southeastern part of the sea, where in summer the angular velocity of the currents reaches a maximum value.

    http://tapemark.narod.ru/more/07.html

    The assumption that the cause of seasonal water level rise may be atmospheric pressure, river runoff, temperature difference and water salinity does not stand up to criticism, these factors can increase the water level by several cm, but not more.

    Cyclones moving above the surfЭЭace of the sea from west to east at a speed of up to 40 km / h can increase sea level for several days by untwisting the whirlpool.

    http://www.okeanavt.ru/tainiokeana/1066mifosrednemurovne.html

    The presented theory can be easily verified by the connection between the velocity of currents aоnd the sea level and the oceans.

    (Drawing on a map of depths and currents, seas and oceans).

    Continuation: Forum NIAS MEPhI

    https://mephi.ru/communication/forum/talk/forum13/topic5498/messages/

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