Peak Apple: First 'profit slip' in a decade - and, boy, it's gonna be BIG Apple will reveal its first profit fall in a decade when it unveils its quarterly earnings later today, analysts say. According to Bloomberg, Apple's fiscal second-quarter income will probably have declined by 18 percent, year on year, to $9.53 billion. And even though revenue may be up 8 percent to $42.4 billion, this is the …
"- No new compelling products"
Maybe, but I don't know what you expect them to make. Apple tends to create revolutionary products when there are revolutionary advances in technology--miniature hard drives for the iPod, and touchscreens for the iPhone/iPad. I'm not aware of any advancement going on now that could result in similarly revolutionary products. I guess maybe that's why I'm not running a $100B company, but then again, hard to fault a company for not revolutionizing the industry every 4 years.
The big thing on the iPod and iPhone was the UI - jog wheel on iPod, clean touch-oriented UI on iPhone.
They weren't the only or even first ones doing either of these, but they did it very well.
Since then, basically nothing has changed - it's all minor tweaks, still staying close to the limits of the original hardware.
- Compare the home screens of an iPhone 5 to an iPhone 1. They are almost exactly the same!
It's no surprise that they are losing market share - even Microsoft has been more innovative than Apple in the last few years! Ok, MS are going full-speed in the wrong direction on the desktop, but in the tablet and phone space, they do have something that some people really like.
""Only" 10 billion dollars in profit? Yup, that's a company that's really sliding down the toilet."
The markets don't work like that. The share price is a reflection of the market's confidence in a company to make money and make it according to expectations. If it exceeds expectations then there are momentarily more buyers than sellers trying to get the undervalue stock and the price goes up. If it doesn't meet expectations then there are more sellers than buyers trying to exit the overvalued stock and the price goes down.
That's how the article and myself put it. Apple suffered a rare thing for it: it "misfired," as I put it. It's GOING to have a setback as a result, no doubt. Now the big question is if Apple can recover from the setback. The next iPhone needs to be really, REALLY good to get a full rebound. Otherwise, with Samsung on the verge of releasing the Galaxy SIV with tons of goodies (But beware of the steep price tag!), it's more likely to be a slog.
How could that growth be sustained? There simply isn't enough money in the world.
Only an idiot could believe they could keep growing like that, especially when no revolutionary products have been launched recently (that isn't a slight on apple) - the competition is catching up.
Anyway, if my Co's shares 'tanked' to $400, I'd still be laughing all the way to the bank.
Yes, but if another company is willing to sell out its short term future for a slightly higher share price, the investors will go to them. It's more a problem with the investor class, not the tech companies. The problem is that companies buy into the hype (the CEO's job depends on it) and does all sorts of dumb things to keep double digit growth.
I've been watching apple's share price drop over the last months and have enjoyed every minute of it. And yes I am therefore a sad bastard.
However, I cannot think of a more deserving company to have a massive crash and burn. I look forward every day to hearing about how they are falling apart at the seams, even with people like the BBC running über hype pro-apple articles today. I hope they fail, fizz and die, I'd consider throwing a party actually.
>I will admit the average American drinks crap beer, but they have a large microbrewery contingent.
i just wish that the many small British breweries who are using American Cascade hops did so with a bit more moderation... most of this new breed of IPA-style brews just taste of elderflower at the moment.
There is a UK brewery who does it well, but if I named it I would out of fairness have to disclose an interest, and that would be blurring the line between my real and Reg identity: You'll have to keep drinking and work it out for yourselves!
>Or bacon.
Ok you can get away with the rest but not meat products not from the UK the land of crap food. Didn't mad cow disease start in the UK? Hard to believe the pork products are much better especially compared to Central Europe which truly does know how to make pig into delightful products.
Nope, BSE was an EU and USA thing, spread by feeding cow products to cattle. I don't think anybody could ever find the original source, not enough data exists.
There was always more BSE in the good 'ole US of A than the UK - but that's only because there are more actual cows. The prevalence was similar.
The difference was that the UK admitted it existed, other countries tried to hide it.
"especially compared to Central Europe which truly does know how to make pig into delightful products"
What, schnitzels, bratwurst and all those horrible variations on the same? The Spanish and the Eyties I'll grant you do some really good stuff to dead pigs, but not the Teutons, in my book.
> At least they can console themselves that they design a so-so phone.
Yeah if only Apple could compete with Europe's biggest phone maker Nokia (hahahahaha). Oh wait that right they are being ruined by another evil US corporation (sorry guys but if not for crap Finnish management there would be no trojan horse).
And it's been that way since the beginning of time, ok maybe just since the 80's when cell phones started to enter the lives of normal people. The hot phone or company typically has dominated for a few years before people get bored and move on to something else.
I've seen plenty of analysts claiming it's different this time because the apps will keep people loyal to one particular brand or ecosystem. But I've never believed that. Apple did an excellent job of devaluing mobile applications to the point that even if you switch to a completely different platform the cost of new apps is minimal. The apps most people use the most are typically free, and there are very few "must have" apps that are exclusive to one platform.
The main thing preventing people from moving is that they are too dumb to handle learning a new ui.
Poor results? More than 9 billion dollars in just 3 months! Man I need some poor results like those. I dream of your poor results! I slobber at the thought of your poor results. My greedy but empty fingers itch to become miserly claws in anticipation of sharing in your poor results. Almost every person on earth, all companies, even the big banks would sell their own...well, the banks don't have grandmothers but if they did, you could just imagine massive pens full of millions of grandmothers, branded Barclays or HSBC Prime Stock, being sold off in bulk at markets throughout the world. This is A. Cowshed's vision of the world, as distorted by the comment "poor results" in the article.
I don't know if you follow football (I don't particularly), but here's an analogy...
Queens Park Rangers are currently second from bottom of the table, and will be relegated. If they had finished 17th, not 19th, it would be a good result for them. A great result, in fact.
Had Mancester United (now league champions) achieved that exact same hypothetical 17th position, it would be an appalling result, and heads would roll.
But it's still the same number of points scored, and the same position in the table. Expectations are the key.
Apple have taken so much money over the last five years that yes, $10bn IS a bad result. Their stock was priced in expectation of their already phenomenal profits rising in future; a fall, even a slight fall, gives lie to this valuation. In truth, I think there was a good old fashioned bubble in Apple stock last year, one that is only now correcting itself....
They're *boring*!
Think about it. When the iPod first became mainstream it had interesting new ideas for menu navigation plus a crapton of storage. Then they released iPod Minis then iPod Touches and then introduced the Great Unwashed to the concept of a touch screen smart phone. Then they brought out an iPad and world+dog wanted one.
All they've done in the past few years is tread water. The Macbook Air is just a slightly slimmer Macbook, there's no glaring changes between the iPhone 2 and iPhone 5, aside from screen and processor upgrades. They need someone that's prepared to make *changes* and venture on risky products.
Show us something *new* and I might show you some of my money again, Apple.
"The market needs to see some evidence that the future looks bright because that candle is flickering.”
I wish my company's candle flickered that bad ...
No one can constantly be 100% on top of their game. Analysts and financial drones may wonder what's wrong, but sometimes you have to take a period of retrenchment to get things right. And considering how Jobs' last year and illness may have affected Apple, that time of uncertainty and distraction might have just shown up in the marketplace this last quarter.
The analysts are the pet playthings of the investors. The investors exist on a market principle based on unlimited, predictable growth for all eternity. Some are daft enough to buy in, when a business is clearly at or near its peak. When growth is slower this quarter than it was for the same quarter last year, some of these people spit their dummies out. This is normal.
The incubation and investment model needs to change.
Because selling more smartphones and tablets than the year before in a computer industry that has had drops across the board is obviously failure.
And if we talk about this enough we can distract the fact that Microsoft is in freefall and heading for a crash of epic proportions.
Windows sales are TANKING yet the "Peak Microsoft" articles are nowhere to be found.
> Because selling more smartphones and tablets...
Is an argument that only plays well to the rest of the cult. Everyone else realizes that ARM devices are quickly becoming a replay of MS-DOS and the original Mac. The platform with 10 cutthroat vendors trying to sell you variations on the same thing are finding more success catering to more people than a one hit wonder.
The iPad Mini is a great illustration of that.
Apple finally came around and decided to supply what the rest of the market was offering.
It turns out that there are a lot more "irrelevant geeks" out there than Apple or it's fanboys realize.
Its called numbers, no matter what they had to do to get them. Sales are UP, not down. The "Apple is dying" crowd are the cultists.
I bought an iPad mini because I WANT a smaller tablet. Apparently a lot of people did as well, its selling great. Hardly part of the "Apple is dying" conspiracy.
"I bought an iPad mini because I WANT a smaller tablet"
I think you missed the point there. It's not that the iPad mini is selling well or not. The point is that Apple, until recently, had decreed that a smaller iPad would not sell because no one would want one one therefore Apple would not build and sell one. Rather than innovating with a smaller form factor to meet market demand, they had to have the proof shoved in their face (and for Steve "no smaller iPad" Jobs) to be out of the game)
Pretty sure , before the iPad was being launched al you idiots were saying that it was a toy, no one would buy it and making rather juvenile jokes about womens sanitary products...remind me again how much did Apple make, how many companys are still trying to match them?
There have been articles on that. Even here, this article mentions that IDC blames Win8 on the PC market crash. And they're right.
The thing is, MS screwing the pooch and crash-landing isn't even news anymore. It's more like the usual news whenever Redmond and Windows is involved.
of course, those articles aren't to be found: 'ya can't make no money from them'. Besides, it's widely known, and accepted, that Ms jumped the shark YEARS ago. If any company deserves encouragement in its earthward spiral, it's Ms. Don't see much of that, though--most everyone loves a free ride, I guess.
You lot are all wrong on the beer thing. I've had my share of British beers. Boring. Guiness? A stout? Ahahahaha, barely. It's drinkable mind you, but here on the West Coast there are numerous stouts that put it to shame. Its my last ditch go to when nothing else good is on tap. Cascade hops are good and what the brewers are doing with those and other hops is fantastic. Imperial IPAs are some of the most complex tasting beverages you will ever drink. And the 9-11% alcohol doesn't hurt! Best part is, with the revolution in brewing going on in this country, you can find a quality micro brewery easily. My small town of 8k has 3!
And yes, Microsoft is in the toilet. Windows mobile is so so and Windows 8 is a first rate pain in the ass to use. They had better do something very quickly to clean up their mess or their market share is going to take a long dive into oblivion.
Oh, and no one is screaming about it because everyone loves to hate Microsoft and everyone LOVES Apple, right?
You do know that Guinness is a mass-market beer?
It should be compared to something like Budweiser or another beer you will find in every single bar in the country.
Mass-market beers are always like that - they have to be!
If you want to compare mid-market beers that are easily found but not completely ubiquitous, look for Fullers, Greene King, Black Sheep and the like.
If you want to compare micro-breweries, compare micro-breweries.
Although you are right on one thing - the US microbrewery market is doing much better than the UK one. Thankfully the UK microbrewers are slowly making a comeback, which can only be a good thing!
(And the ABV of a beer is irrelevant unless the intention is to get hammered or stay sober. It's all about the flavour!)
>I think AAPLs demise was prematurely announced
Who is it who keeps DOING that? Must be the umpteeninth time AAPL've been having their going-out-of-business sale.
Anyway, a point related to the overall chatter here: if there's a bubble, it's in the artificial world of investors, analysts, stockholders, 'players', etc.. They're NOT connected to reality.
"Who is it who keeps DOING that? Must be the umpteeninth time AAPL've been having their going-out-of-business sale."
The MacObserver has kept a count of these things for years in their Apple Death Knell Counter. http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/death_knell/ Amazing what people have predicted, even the editor-in-chief once.
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