back to article IDC: Windows tablets won't hit 10% market share until 2016

Analyst firm IDC sees Windows-based tablets winning significant market share away from both Android and iOS eventually, but says it won't happen for another several years yet. According to the latest figures from the company's Worldwide Tablet Tracker, sales of fondleslabs running Windows 7, Windows 8, and Windows RT will only …

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  1. Mikel
    Flame

    IDC always inflates the Microsoft number

    Usually they give Redmond a 20x bonus in their mobile forecast for some reason. So if they say 10 percent, expect 0.5.

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Four year projections are worthless

    Especially from IDC. Here's one of their previous howlers:

    "IDC's latest worldwide smartphone shipment forecast through 2013 has Symbian continuing to dominate the field of ever-stronger competitors thanks "primarily to the strength of Nokia in markets outside of the United States"

    from

    http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/26/idc-symbian-should-keep-dominating-the-market-android-to-take/

    1. Richard Plinston

      Re: Four year projections are worthless

      How about this one from Gartner:

      """Windows Phone 7 to overtake iPhone, says Gartner"""

      1. Mikel

        Re: Four year projections are worthless

        Different whore.

    2. Mikel

      Re: Four year projections are worthless

      Well since it's old home week, here's IDC forecasting 30 million Windows Phone sales in 2011. http://www.zdnet.com/blog/hardware/update-idc-30-million-windows-phone-7-handsets-to-be-sold-by-end-2011/8451

      This wasn't four years out. It was next year at the time.

      I'm pretty sure they whiffed that one, but Microsoft used it to intimidate a lot of people to do things based on that fantasy - to their detriment.

  3. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    I wish I could get paid for doing what they do

    They just look at the current market share, give a bit of weight to current trends, and top it off with a generous helping of what their clients want to hear.

    Their clients are corporations, all of whom are far more heavily invested in Microsoft than they are in Apple or Google. So of course they'll overestimate Microsoft's share.

    These guys are the ones who two years ago were predicting near double digit growth in the PC market as far as the eye could see, and kept adjusting their predictions each quarter as it turned out the PC market was actually SHRINKING. This year's shrinkage was blamed on Europe this spring and on people waiting for Windows 8 this summer.

    I haven't seen their updated predictions since the PC market shrunk by more than double digits in the past quarter, they are probably busy figuring out what to blame that on - my money's on the US fiscal cliff. Who knows what the next quarter's shrinkage will be blamed on? Hangover from the world not ending on Dec. 21, perhaps?

  4. Khaptain Silver badge
    Pint

    Unstables econimies

    During the last 20 odd years or so whilst growth was relatively garaunteed all of these "Analysts" had an easy task, almost anything they said came true to some extent or another.

    Now though, the markets are in a constant disarray and analysing market trends is amost impossible. These guys just keep geting it wrong time after time.

    Alternatively, maybe they do know how to do their analysis and what they have seen is very negative and they do not want the client to know this as they fear they would no longer be kept in employement.

    These analysts remind me of modern day "Seers", who were also full of shit.

    <-- I propose to make a toast to the futile and the useless bastards of this world. There a lots of us...

  5. CAPS LOCK
    Thumb Down

    I don't think anyone takes IDC seriously. They are just a PR company.

  6. Geoff Campbell Silver badge
    FAIL

    New acronym.

    I suggest we institute a new acronym for such forecasts, along the lines of TL;DR. How about TG;DR, for Two Generations; Didn't Read?

    Honestly, guys, why do you bother? Predicting one generation ahead is fraught with uncertainty and inaccuracy. Two generations just can't be done.

    GJC

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