Surface slab WILL rub our PC-making pals the wrong way – Microsoft Microsoft’s tablet-like-laptop Surface will compete with machines from PC partners, thus jeopardising manufacturers’ commitment to Windows 8. That’s the bottom line revealed in Microsoft’s latest SEC filing for Wall St’s moneymen. Under the Risk Factors section in Microsoft’s 10-K, here, the company states: “Our Surface …
Just a quick reminder that simply because something is filed in a SEC report, doesn't mean the company really thinks there's any likelihood of it happening.
Here's how The SEC Filing Game works:
1. Take out shares in a major company.
2. Find an event that happened but that wasn't in their SEC filing. Claim that this event negatively affected the share price.
3. Sue.
4. Profit!!!
Hence SEC filings are often pre-emptive measures rather than carefully calibrated risk assessments, and shouldn't necessarily be taken as an indication of a company's real opinion on a given subject.
They are conservative 'cover our arses' statements *but* everything in the risk disclosure affects stock value, they don't just throw things in to be safe because that also gets them sued.
If something this damaging is in there they believe it's a real risk. This one is so damaging if anything they'll have understated it as far as they believe possible while avoiding a shareholder lawsuit.
No. The SEC is very serious. You don't lie to the SEC. It's far worse than lying to the FBI.
The FBI only cares about silly things like kidnapping. The SEC safeguards money for the wealthy.
It's more serious than you silly let-the-corporations-have-no-accountability tort reform rhetoric implies.
<<Newell, speaking in Seattle, Washington, reportedly called Windows 8 "a catastrophe for everyone in the PC space”.>>
Newell also said Windows 8 will "Kill gaming on the PC" what he meant of course was, it will kill Valve on the PC. Micro$oft is starting its own "instant-WinRT-monopoly" app store, undoubtedly also selling games through it... this will affect Steam negatively... If you ask me, he should sell his company to some Schmuck with deep pockets now, before he goes the way of RIM.
Its a shame Crapple didn't patent their all-locked-down business model. Now they can't sue Micro$huft for trying to do the same.
As for games, Windows 8 introduces a Stereoscopic 3D API, which will help games on the PC greatly. No more Nvidia stranglehold, with purposely crippled 3DS output modes over HDMI and such.
My hope is, that people will be too smart to buy Windows RT devices until Micro$oft is forced to add full Windows compatibility and give up on the single source app store. We don't need another anti-competitive stranglehold that serves nothing besides false security claims and getting Micro$oft 30% of everything sold.
So, its a mixed bag. Like the article said :)
Recommendations to consumers?
- Don't buy machines limited to Windows RT.
- Do buy regular Windows 8 machines and simply read the tutorial on how to get the desktop back, if you hate Metro.
- There's also a way to have both the desktop AND Metro in one, simply by installing Rainmeter with the Omnimo skin, both of which are useful and free.
And for Intel's sake, buy some Ultrabooks, jeez, how hard can it be? Eat Ramen for a month...
A Windows RT version has to be at least competitive with Android / iOS so I expect it will be $400-500, the x86 version running actual Windows 8 will probably be $800 or thereabouts.
I doubt either will ship with the keyboard, which will be an accessory commanding a large markup. Given how much a smart cover costs for an iPad you can expect the keyboard cover for the Surface to cost that or more.
I expect list will be on the pricy side to avoid complaints from OEMs, but like everyone else its pure a guess and could easily be wrong. A major goal with the RT model seems to be to get ARM devices into the hands of developers and evaluators to get the store moving for next year.
> competitive with Android / iOS
Apple has the supply chain in place with large volumes to ensure best possible costs. Because they still have the iPad2 being sold they could drop the selling price of this further to cover any 'cheap' Surface. They could also bring out a 7-8" iPad. It is likely that they will keep the iPad3 at a premium price.
Android tablet cover a wide range of prices from ultra-cheap (usually nasty, but not always) through to premium.
Windows ARM tablets will have some significant disadvantages: MS dictates the components and minimum specs. Suppliers know this and can 'negotiate' lower discounts for those. Volumes will be lower for each individual OEM (whereas Apple buys components for 100% of iPad), this is also a factor that will increase costs. OEMs will have to factor in an additional $80 for the OS.
Given an identical machine with either RT or Android, the RT one needs to have a price at least $80 higher.
Given these it is likely that the only barely profitable option for ARM is to try for the premium market at a price level higher than iPad3. But then this will compete with Surface RT where MS does not need to factor in the OS price.
Result: OEMs would make a loss, so are unlikely to bother.
For x86 Windows 8 the costs will be higher because of the i5 (or similar) CPU, GPU, larger battery, cooling, and the _requirement_ that it have keyboard and mouse/trackpad to be useful (for legacy software). It would also probably need to sell with OEM Office. This is why Windows Slates are so much more expensive than ARM tablets, and x86 W8 will not be much cheaper than those.
HP should bring back WebOS and add an Android sub-system. Dell etc should make the Android/Ubuntu tablets they were working on. Google will take the mass-market end of the tablet market. MS alone will have Windows ARM tablets, there will be a continuing small market for x86 tablets but most users will stick with laptops or get iPads.
"barely profitable option for ARM is to try for the premium market at a price level higher than iPad3"
ALL the iPads and iPhones use an ARM core. ARM win from every Android, iOS and Win8 ARM sale.
I expect the only loser will be Intel. They have an ARM licence and the best Fab, why aren't they making Intel ARM SoC?
I expect the Mac Air to switch from x86 to ARM sometime too.
>> "barely profitable option for ARM is to try for the premium market at a price level higher than iPad3"
Let me clarify that for you, first by restoring the part you clipped, and then adding the context created by the previous paragraphs:
"Given these [options and constraints for OEMs] it is likely that the only barely profitable option for ARM [based OEM tablets as distinct from x86] is to try for the premium market at a price level higher than iPad3"
ARM do make profits, OEMs making ARM based Windows RT tablets are unlikely to do so, for the reasons given.
Agreed. That's why the Asus Transformer will get yet another sales boost: first Apple with its unexpandable feature-limited walled garden slab, now Microsoft with this. My TF is now 12 months old and stll works perfectly, no need of a cover, no need of an add-on keyboard thanks to its clamshell design. And definitely no need of anything with as daft a name as a Surface, a word which appears to suggest that Microsoft's success will be merely superficial.
"Contrary to reports, Surface will not be priced $1,000-plus...................
Microsoft has not yet announced any Surface pricing. ..................Back in June it said the Surface "is expected to be competitive with a comparable ARM tablet or Intel Ultrabook-class PC......"
So if I work then out right then its comparable to an ultrabook, arn't they selling for $1000 plus ?
...but that's the whole shell game being played. Too externally identical devices, both with identical start screens and mostly indistinguishable Metro modes. 2 wildly different prices. A recipe for hoodwinking customers if ever I saw one, talk up the pro device, sell the RT, hope the disappointed buyers don't make too much noise.
"...but that's the whole shell game being played. Too externally identical devices, both with identical start screens and mostly indistinguishable Metro modes. 2 wildly different prices. A recipe for hoodwinking customers if ever I saw one, talk up the pro device, sell the RT, hope the disappointed buyers don't make too much noise."
You definitely are not a marketing person. Misrepresenting a product is really the last thing you want to be doing for sustained business. Disappointed customers who feel they've been "hoodwinked" are the worst kind of press. What you describe is the sort of tactic a short-term seller like a person in a pub would benefit from, not a long-term business.
"Windows 8 has probably been in planning, if not active development since before Windows 7 actually started being sold"
I'll agree something intended to be released as Windows 8 was probably in planning before Vista was launched. Some of the desktop core is probably actually implemented in Win8.
What's actually being released as Win8 only started after Apple started *selling significant numbers* of iPads. Not when they launched because as usual MS failed to believe there was a market. As usual MS are late to the party and as usual using dirty tricks to catch up - in this case screwing over the desktop to cross promote other, non-PC products.
The customers who buy the cheaper Arm box thinking "Its Windows, it HAS to run my legacy software!" are going to feel VERY hoodwinked.
And yes it will be their fault for buying it without knowing what it actually IS. But when they find out they have to play double iPad prices to run non-tablet Windows apps, they will be howling. And when the ones who bought the big pad and can run them find out that not onlly is it thicker, heavier and runs hot, but it also has the battery life of a Sega Nomad, THEY will start howling as well.
The whole thing is still a recipe for failure.
I think those who didn't care about regular windows have already gone to Crapple products for the shininess and the perception that Crapple products are used by "smart people" and "creatives", and so if they buy one, they will somehow also be considered smart and creative...
The suddenly so-called "legacy" programs are mostly made for consumers and were either already purchased at fairly high prices or pirated for free. The new Windows RT monopoly will not fly with either of those customers.
And all the I-need-it-super-simple People who will fall for a monolithic walled ghetto scheme are already with the shiny baubles company.
At least those of us who don't wish the open PC market dead can hope that it is so...
Detroit has played this game profitably for years. 2 models on the show room, one is the top of the line and costs say 40K. The other is the economy line with a base of 30K. The top of the line comes with all accessories standard. On the economy model these are costly add ons. The top of the line model is structurally superior and a safer product. The economy model is less robust, and a more dangerous vehicle to be in.
Detroit makes their money off the consumers who fall for this charade, get the low priced model, and then add accessories to the point that they are spending very close to the top of the line model. They have succeeded in getting the rubes to pay for an inherently inferior product practically the same amount they charge for their best product.
talking of an 'inferior' product sort of implies they actually have a 'superior' product too?
I don't think so... I've rented a bunch of GM cars and it was awful every time.
In one of the big cars, I think it was an Oldsmobile I rented in Phoenix, they have nifty 'features' like AC vents blowing directly on the drivers knee with no possibility for adjustment or moving your knee out of the way. So, when you try to get out of the car, your knee is frozen solid, you can't straighten it and are forced to limp away...
Lexus wins by default :)
"You definitely are not a marketing person. Misrepresenting a product is really the last thing you want to be doing for sustained business. Disappointed customers who feel they've been "hoodwinked" are the worst kind of press. What you describe is the sort of tactic a short-term seller like a person in a pub would benefit from, not a long-term business."
See attached icon.
The only half decent tablet that I'd like to own at the moment is the Samsung Series Seven Slate, it's on the pricey side, though. I'm holding off until I see how much the Intel based surface costs and what it's like - certainly in terms of memory, and what any potential docking station will be like.
If MS kick the tablet manufacturers up the backside, this can only be a good thing, even if you're a die hard Linux or Mac user, because it'll force all the competition to up their game.
I have a series 7. It's not a bad piece of kit because it's got the grunt for VS2012, but the build quality isn't phenomenal, exactly. The glass is lifting off the frame in the corners. Also, it's $£&ing heavy. Granted, it replaces my little Vaio P-Series, which's only 600-odd grams.
I'm waiting for an ARM Surface. Means I can leave the slate at home, which's where I do dev anyway.
Microsoft produces tablet-like-laptops which even appeal to me. It runs Win8, all aimed at touch.
Other manufacturers get so upset and ticked off that they continue to sell PC's with Windows 7 despite MS' demands to stop sales in order to push Windows 8 forward.
I'd call that a win-win situation ;-)
Well, they are good for consumption, and FaceTime is kinda nice if you have the andwidth, but really if you want to create something a tablet just doesn't cut it.
Of course considering that most people out there only consume, there might be a real threat to Windows.
As for the Linux Fanbois, well... if Linux ever gets it act together maybe. Win and FreeBSD.Apple work, and are supported long term. Just try that with Linux unless the support staff stars back at you (no drool please) in the mirror each day.
Gaming on Linux? Really? In theory killer, in reality DOA. See previous comments and if Newell is serious maybe time to sell Valve stock. Valve would be better served porting to the touchy feely consumer world.
“Our Surface devices will compete with products made by our OEM [original equipment manufacturer] partners, which may affect their commitment to our platform."
At least this tablet may just be able to skim the Surface. If thrown hard enough....
Someone needs a severe overdose of Valium. Not me, I think (I need a severe overdose of Viagra).
It's like the stick & carrot strategy, but with two sticks instead.
But seriously, OEMs will begin considering seriously other non-windows OSs the same minute that their relationship with MS starts hurting their baseline. You know, OEMs also have obligations to their shareholders.
The funniest part of this is watching Mr. Ballmer et al waltzing into a minefield. Blindfolded and with clown shoes.
Ah but after the arrival of smartphones and tablets and smart TVs, if even MSFT are seen as supporting the diversification of platforms then who knows what effect that could have on public perception of computer=windows that they have lived on for so long.
Is it that difficult to imagine say Ubuntu desktops/laptops?
"Well I've provided Linux desktops for several 70-80 year olds over the last few years and guess what - they never even knew there WAS a command line - why should they - they were just using programs - you know clicking on icons."
I've likewise provided Ubuntu for people. And they have also been fine. Really, it's Linux + Gnome or KDE (or even xfce) is good enough for the Desktop. The major weakness is that you have to install it yourself and it doesn't have everything work out of the box as well. If you bought a PC with Ubuntu pre-installed by a manufacturer that had checked everything out, as you do with Mac OS or Windows, then one of the major disincentives for most people would be gone.
I have the view that anyone who suggests that the command-line is NEEDED to use LInux is either ignorant or spreading FUD. I never routinely use it for installations. The command line is handy for many things, sometimes ( very rarely) easier for setting-up new or exotic hardware. I also use it all the time for compiling software. But for using a system it isn't needed. My wife for example wouldn't know what it was.
Really, People can buy PCs with whatever OS, cause they have the freedom to install something else if they like.
Its simple enough to do, anyone has somebody in their family who can do it.
I hope by now, the remaining people not buying Apple are getting increasingly allergic to bullshit devices with locked down boot loaders trying to force them into single source app stores.
"iOS 6 is just more of the same."
Isn't it? Given widgets and everything else popping up on other platforms, I've been waiting for Apple to come out with a revolutionary change in their interface, but each time its still a grid of icons.
Obviously not hurting their sales, but I've always thought Apple can something really special UI-wise
(cue fanbois saying "but my 3 year old can use it!", as if somehow that's proof that something is good, rather than an example of the ultimate in dumbing down...)
This could be an interesting opportunity for Apple, now that Jobs is out of the way: letting OEMs sell Mac OS machines.
But they'll probably respond to it by imitating Win 8's touchscreen-only UI. That, after all, is the direction Apple's been going in ever since it was a gleam in Jobs's eye. MS finally one-upped them at their own anti-productive game, and it would be very unlike them not to respond in kind--even if it means playing catchup with MS for a change, and shooting themselves in the foot into the bargain, just as MS is doing.
Unless, of course, there's someone at Apple who isn't trying to channel Jobs ...
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MS can go 2 ways with this:
1. Sell it cheap, and take over the market like they did with Xbox. This good for consumers, at least in the short run.
2. Sell it high, grab some of Crapples market.
Either way, PC makers have all the more reason (due to Win8's pure awfulness) to switch to the Linux desktop.
The surface it self is a good thing. That it is a container for the Win8 poison is a very bad thing. Win8 is a self inflicted lethal poison that could mean the end of MS. It is so stunningly wrong on so many levels it is a testament to management hubris and bad design.
"PC makers have all the more reason (due to Win8's pure awfulness) to switch to the Linux desktop."
But not enough to drop Windows altogether.
Linux isn't a realistic alternative for regular office business thus far, and that's where PC makers sell units hundreds and thousands at a time, not you and me consumer buying PC's for home.
Agreed. Businesses will just skip W8 as they skipped Vista and stay on W7 for the desktop. Moving from Windows would be enormously expensive for a large enterprise. License costs are quite low compared to support and migration costs.
W8 Server is a different beast and may be worthwhile and server migrations generally aren't as fast as desktops might be.
However, if Valve gets devs on board with linux/opengl (cross platform) games and W8 is a consumer failure, then OSX will pick up more consumers and MS' grip on the home market will be loosened further. That means more OSX devs around who will want to do cross-platform, rather than OSX or Windows only. An OSX-Windows cross-platform app is just a hop-skip-and-a-jump from linux. Worse than cross-platform apps are web-apps which remove investment in the windows platform and make it a non-critical bit of infrastructure.
I actually wonder if PC makers would rather choke on W8 until it drives them out of business before adopting an alternative source for their OS. Why would I even suggest that? Well Vista already tested the waters. When it was hurting the PC makers sales they continued on with it until Windows 7. That showed us their impotency in regards to making a change or control their own future.
Ultimately I think they are fundamentally locked into the belief they have to sell PC's with a Windows OS even if it means, for some, they may be going out of business. I hope I'm wrong but if PC makers continue to act as though nailed down rather than choose the control an alternate OS would give them it could be their end.
Windows 8 won't replace Windows 7 in the same way previous new versions have, no matter how much pressure MS put on OEMs it is simply too different a product and Windows 7 has far more life left in it than previously superseded versions.
Touch displays / UIs have been very poorly taken up in the desktop market in the face of the tablet revolution and this is Win8's natural habitat; I predict that tier 1 OEMs will be cautious in rolling out their Windows 8 offerings while continuing to develop and base existing lines on Win7
"Well Vista already tested the waters. When it was hurting the PC makers sales they continued on with it until Windows 7"
Or continued selling XP for anybody who asked for it. If MS closes that path -i.e stops selling Windows 7 to force OEMs into Win 8- things could get really nasty for them.
MS and Nokia make good bed fellows; two companies who have lost their way...
With recent Office offerings and now Windows 8 MS are looking to be about where Nokia were 4-5 years ago, striving for relevance in a market they increasingly fail to understand and sitting on the brink of a long decline.
Although MS's decline will undoubtedly be a slower and less drastic affair than that of Nokia, my advice to anyone holding onto MS stock - SELL NOW, because over the next 4-5 years it will slide to a around half it's current value or even less.
I have to agree with you 100%. MS are so far behind the competition. I expect that their tablet will go the same way as the Zune. I also think that Apple have peaked too. Without Steve's vision, we've seen some embarrassing U-turns recently.
Makes interesting reading
http://m.vanityfair.com/business/2012/08/microsoft-lost-mojo-steve-ballmer
pricing ""is expected to be competitive with a comparable ARM tablet or Intel Ultrabook-class PC"
...so somewhere between $80 and $2000 then. Brilliant.
"'The customers who buy the cheaper Arm box thinking "Its Windows, it HAS to run my legacy software!' are going to feel VERY hoodwinked.
And yes it will be their fault for buying it without knowing what it actually IS"
Well, really, it's Microsoft's fault to some extent. Windows 8 for ARM is so stripped, it's really not Windows any more than Windows CE was Windows, and if Microsoft labels it "Windows" instead of clearly marking "Windows RT" or the like, they are being pretty deceptive. Apple managed near-seamless compaibility going from 68k->PowerPC and PowerPC->Intel (although I must point out MacOS is now quite piss-poor in terms of hardware support, since they don't support machines older than like 2 years old.) Linux has qemu, also allowing, say, running a Linux Intel app on an ARM Linux system (plus, of course, ARM Linux is Linux, not an incompatible new thing like WinRT is so qemu would get minimal use anyway..) It's not unreasonable for people to assume a "Windows" system will run Windows apps.
I'll find it ironic if the "best" way to run Windows apps on ARM becomes putting on a Linux distro and running some qemu & wine combination (apparently, this doesn't work right now though, due to qemu-i386 not handling threads properly yet.)
Using Zune as constant reference to Microsoft hardware failure... you need to look deeper at why…
Zune was marketing and distribution failure without a doubt, ok, so the first generation Zunes were clunky and felt like you had bought a cheap iPod (although somebody still gave me £30 for it on ebay!).
BUT, the Zune HD which they brought out was a great piece of kit. I absolutely love the Zune HD (which I still use on my daily commute), the Mrs has had every generation of iPod Nano and still I would choose the Zune HD, the user interface, screen quality for video etc.. all amazingly good, it even looked great (I sold my iPod touch to buy a Zune HD). The downside was that it was a late to market and they never sold it outside of North America so the rest of the world apart from those visiting the US never got to see one. The Zune HD showed that they can make a great piece of hardware, but someone needs to sort out how they take it to market.
Assuming they get the hardware right, and there is nothing to indicate they won’t, and you can make reference to Xbox’s as much as you like but the fact is that they have sorted that out now and probably learnt a lot it the process, with the power of the Windows brand behind it, then it’s likely to be a success.
Within a month of release of the first surface you can guarantee there will be Windows haters who are buying them just to wipe them and install their favourite linux distro.
> Xbox ... they have sorted that out now
It was released in 2005, it _should_ be 'sorted' by now.
> with the power of the Windows brand behind it, then it’s likely to be a success.
How well has that worked for WP7 ?
> buying them just to wipe them and install their favourite linux distro.
It it is heavily subsidized (as XBox was) and/or is in the bargain bin then I would certainly look at doing that.
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