Re: @h4rm0ny
"The disbelief is not that 20% of software in use is not correctly licenses, but that (a) stopping this would not necessarily lead to 20% more income (a lot of expensive unlicensed software would not be bought, but cheaper alternatives used), and that (b) any such increase in income won't necessarily help the UK economy as a whole."
Ah, I see. Yes, their methodology (I have actually read the paper) does not appear to account for diminished use from having to pay for it. That would certainly have some effect. How much is a bit of an educated guess. I would imagine most of the unlicenced software by businesses is going to be actually in use. Certainly there'll be the odd copy of photoshop, dreamweaver, etc. on a PC that was never really used and installed just because someone brought it in etc. I freely agree this is an educated guess now, but I think the large majority of unlicenced software will be in use. At home, it's a different matter - people fill up their PCs with all sorts of stuff just because... but work PCs (especially outside of technical roles such as most El Reg. readers have) usually just have what they need. So how much of what is in use could be done without or a free alternative found?
Unlicenced software is probably more prevalent amongst smaller companies (at least outside China.) Big companies recognize the risks of trying to cheat on large numbers of licences and it's not worth their time to cheat on small numbers of licences. It's the company of 40 people with the director who thinks it will never happen to her where they probably run off unlicenced copies of Office or Windows, etc. These companies don't usually have the resource to find alternatives. The more savvy ones will realize they could save money by grabbing Open Office (for example), but expertise with that is less common which makes it more risky (or perceived as), plus some people will prefer MS Office (most for now, maybe in the future it will reach parity). My hunch having worked with such places is that most would stump up the money, though not all would.
So would it be the full $1.2bn? Probably less than that (though keep in mind the reasons why their figures for piracy could be underestimates). But I think it would be in that region.
About whether the increase in income not necessarily helping the UK economy as a whole, that is probably true. But I don't think it's ethical to take an attitude that because it's another country, it's more acceptable to rip them off. I mean that's China's attitude at the moment with software.