A little simplistic
While I cannot fault a lot you analysis, Rik, the average consumer Mac user will be happy to get their applications from the new Apple store, a significant body of others won't.
The experienced Mac user is their own sysadmin and they will happily ignore being tied down to Steve Jobs vision. I know I am. I run the software I choose to use, the small apps that will not receive Cupertino's blessing but make my Mac perform how I wish it to perform, and of course I will still use the professional applications that may not be blessed but do the job I want.
Having said that, I do not have ANY Microsoft software on my Mac anymore, Office became redundant the moment Open Office became usable.