Nothing is confirmed
Seriously no one has the first clue about whats going to happen, MS dont need to lock Windows to a phone, all they have to do is give a " Windows Designed" sticker to hardware manufactures if the hardware meets there aproval. HTC have a huge WM hardware base they will make what sells money.
The only real question is compatability, software makers will be unlikely to re design software to a major extent because the code base is completely different, so, if things are different and it needs a complete redesign it would be a shame because thats the only real advantage they have over the other two.
IT specialist, you dont know that, you dont know how many devices are in the making, you dont know what the software is going to support and what its going to be like, you say developers have abandoned WM because there is only 700 apps on the marketplace, please remember the market is very new, and almost all software for WM is sold else where on the internet and in shops, you say Developers are angry about locking down the platform, but again, you have no idea what is going to happen, everything you have read has been taken form a few sources that do not actually say anything as fact, its all speculation, unlike apple, MS can be quite good at keeping things away if they try hard enough.
Im not saying your rong, maybe they will lock it down tighter than a ducks arse but the simple fact is, we dont know.