Apple to push Nokia into smartphone second place

UK market watcher Generator Research (GR) has suggested Apple could knock Nokia off the world smartphone maker top spot within four years. By 2013, it forecast, Apple's iPhone line - by then expanded with a range of models - could have won a global marketshare of around 40 per cent. That's what Nokia currently enjoys. But the …

[Anonymous Coward]

All that lock-in!!!

Seeing as how the smartphone market is only just happening and no-one will be able to afford a smartphone in the near future I am not suprised.

All those poor fools locked-in to shitty iTunes and Apple's idea of a "smart" phone, that cannot forward a text - yeah, that's smart.

[Neil Hoskins]

Just one problem...

Define "smartphone".

Something with a touch-screen? Something with a qwerty keyboard? Something with a browser? Something capable of running apps?

[Ed]

Apple's Roadmap

I'm not sure how they can judge Apple's roadmap - they've no idea what it is. Everyone just expects an iPhone Nano of some sort, but nobody actually knows if it'll ever happen...

[Robbie Simpson]

Foolish...

They say that Apple is more focused on smartphones than Nokia, cleverly forgetting the iPod, Xserve, AppleTV and that promising new machine, the Mackintosh.

[Anonymous Coward]

can't be that smart* ...

... you can't copy and paste.

* but am I talking about the phone or the owners? Answers on a postcard...

[Scott K]

Pure bullshit

Where do they pull these stats from? Nokia smartphone, ha ha ha about as smart as a rock.

[Daniel B.]

Yeah, right.

With the credit crunch, the smartphone market will certainly shift back to the big corporations ... who buy Blackberries.

The common people will either buy cheap mobiles, or some of the "nice features!" handsets like those from Sony Ericcson. Those who were impressed with the iPhone ... might end up buying the LG lookalike.

The iPhone's boom has ended, and I've only seen 3 of those. The masses aren't impressed.

[Anonymous Coward]

@All that lock-in!!!

Wooooossshhh .... what was that? Oh it was the point you missed 8-)

The "smartphone" market will get bigger and the phones will get cheaper... only a poor fool would ignore the fact that high-end functions trickly down to lower priced models and hence everyone will have a "smartphone" of some type in a few years time.

Personally I hate using phones, so the voice element of a smartphone is minimal to me .. my "smartphone" is a WinMobile6-based Samsung SGH-i600 but it only gets used as a wifi <-> 3G bridge (between reboots/resets that is!) for all the lovely applications I can run on a netbook or ipod touch.

The iphone/ipod touch 2.x OS is extremely good and the eco-system that is already in place (~10,000 apps and rising - see http://appshopper.com/blog/2008/11/29/app-store-reaches-10000-apps-sorta/) bodes well for future developments. You might be locked-in to Apple's infrastructure for application delivery but you are not locked out of choice of things to put on said devices.

[Thomas]

Hopefully a wake-up call?

I think other providers are going to have difficulty catching up with the AppStore in the short term, hopefully this prediction will shake a few companies out of inaction. I guess it's a further argument in favour of OS standardisation across handsets - though without a single company at the top controlling the whole thing we're unlikely to see a product as smooth as the AppStore. Probably the other players will just mess around with poor market strategies (the analogue of subscription music services as a rebut to iTunes) until someone hits on just doing the same thing with fewer end-user restrictions. Or worse, the networks will decide to set up their own handset agnostic application stores, so developers will need to work alongside 30 listing agencies rather than just 1 and have to deal with greatly increased support costs and users will be confused when handsets either aren't marketed clearly enough to make it obvious what they'll run or else by the marketing connected to handsets trying to make it obvious what they'll run.

So, it'll probably be like PCs - commoditised hardware, most of it running the exact same OS.

[sleepy]

Not so far fetched . . .

. . . although I don't know how accurate this forecast will prove to be. Apple is already making as much money from smartphones as Nokia, despite selling far fewer. Personally, I'll be a little surprised if smartphones are as little as 20% of the cellphone market in 2013. Especially if you include whatever cellular capable devices Apple et al come up with to take sales from Kindle/Netbook.

@AC The lack of SMS/MMS features is not because Apple couldn't easily put the features in, of course, but because they are selling a device designed to evolve into a future connected world where limited messaging embedded in voice data is going to look decidedly quaint. PC's, iPod touches and netbooks don't naturally accept SMS/MMS either, but phones can do email, and the internet can do voice.

[Anonymous Coward]

nokia's app downloads

if you have generic nokia firmware, it has an app downloader built in, and nokia have an online service with lots of useful apps, free and pay. so why has apple stolen the show?

problems

1/ many cell operators cripple the nokia firmware, disabling features, often removing the app tool.

2/ nokias catalogue of apps is old and out of date

3/ nokia don't promote it

solutions to the above

1/ load generic firmware

using a hacking tool called NSS you can change the "product code" in the phone from the number identifying it as an operator-branded model to the generic model; then you run nokia's own software updater tool which reflashes it. this is of course warranty-voiding stuff, and will get you banned from nokia's own forums for mentioning it!

2/ use nokia's catalogue as a guide to what exists, but go and find the latest copy

3/ nokia seem to be coming round to the idea that people who buy smartphone actually want to do more with it than the out-of-the-box features provide.

[Anonymous Coward]

Get your facts right, please.

Firstly, iPhone had the ability to send one text message to a group of users, since software version 2. Second, this is the best gizmo I've ever had, in my experience the abusive criticisers never used one.

[Walker]

My opinion of Generator Research just dropped through the floor.

"Apple is more focused on Smartphones, with a broad handset product line to develop and promote?" So the dozens of highly successful Nokia N-Series handsets released over the past few years were figments of our imaginations then?

"Apple has an app store, and third-party apps allow them to create a broader product than defined by hardware alone?" Then what is the Symbian API about then? Symbian has more third-party apps available than any other mobile OS.

I somehow suspect OVI is on its way to becoming Nokia's App Store too.

Nokia's strategy became clear with the staggered released of the 5800 XpressMusic. Rather than target the iPhone with a single handset, they're creating a series of touch phones which play on individual strengths and target different demographics. For starters, we've got a music oriented device aimed at low-to-mid end users, and eventually a flagship N-Series aimed at power-users later this summer. Nokia's worldwide distribution network is something Apple don't have, allowing them to stagger the release of their products worldwide, and essentially smother the competition. Unlike the iPhone, Nokia's first touchscreens can be operated with fingers, plectrum and stylus, the latter opening it up to Asian markets where handwriting recogition is so important.

I hate the iPhone <> every other smartphone comparisons as much as the next guy, but this Generator Research report is just not credible and the above is just a few reasons why.

[Anonymous Coward]

IMCDH

My feelings on the iphone are the opposite of Charlton Heston's feelings about guns.

Namely, I'd have be be dead before you could foist one upon me.

will a download will correct the shit camera and corporate lock-in?

[Anonymous Coward]

Slow and steady wins the race.

if anyone thinks apples iPhone expansion will continue at the same rate as the past 2 years, they need a little trip to business school.

Its new its a fad, its like the Motarola Razr everyone had one when they first came out but motarola arnt top dog.

2G iphone was inovative

3G iphone makes little advancement.

next iphone will probally be a lame duck unless they pull their thumb out.

[Andy ORourke]

Good luck to them

Iphone is the first apple product I've owned and despite a couple of minor irritatiions and apples restrictive practices it just about knocks every previous phone I've ever owned into a cocked hat!

[Jared Earle]

Here's hoping

This is excellent, and shows what can happen if you have the balls to shake stuff up a bit. Remember how stagnant the carrier-driven Smart Phone market prior to the iPhone was?

Here's hoping someone (maybe Palm?) can make a phone better than the iPhone, just so Apple et al are forced once again to up their game.

[Anonymous Coward]

MMS? Cut and paste?

How about a keyboard?

[Anonymous Coward]

Move along, nothing to see

Apple _could_ knock Nokia off of the top slot in smartphones? Heck, so could a lot of folks, Microsoft, Samsung, HTC, Google, etc - so excuse me if I'm not exactly impressed by that bit of prediction. Lord, even Palm is (big stretch of the imagination) a possible Nokia-beater!

Secondly, Apple are "more focused on smartphones than Nokia". Errm, that's arguable - Apple has one phone model (albeit in 3G and non-3G version) at present, and they seem to be pushing the idea that phones are _merely_ one product in their line - along with the various desktop PC's, laptops, media players etc.

Next idea - that network operators will be happy to have the iPhone accessing their network willy-nilly. From what I've seen that's a non-starter - heck some operators are even taking out stuff like VoIP apps etc. Plus "delivering network operator APIs through the iPhone would allow the platform to rapidly gain 'missing' features" - anyone out there quite happy to buy an 'inferior' device and then have to spend more money adding the features that the manufacturer took out or left out?

My main objection to this bit of Apple fanboi-ness is that it seems to assume Nokia will continue to bumble along, while Apple generates all the gee-whiz factors. Fan-boi's apart, can anyone see a company the size of Nokia (with all the engineers they have) sitting on their hands while an upstart tries to take over? (Especially in the current climate!)

Don't get me wrong - I'm not anti-iPhone at all - I think it's done a great job of forcing Samsung, Nokia et al to raise their game. Conversely, I'm not ready to join the throngs of faithful either.

As to the report, based on the data given here, I'd rate it as "C-"... :-p

[Stuart]

Good news everyone...

... high competition means progress. Now Nokia must really fight for their market share, like in the late 90's. The more competition the better, can you imagine the innovation this new competition will bring?

[timothy Bandy]

The iPhone cometh…

And nothing is going to stop it. In spite of all their "wonderful" N-series of phones, Nokia's smartphone market-share has plummeted from around 70% to around 40%, whereas, Apple's share has gone from 0 to around 30% in less than 2 years.

Read this article to see how the numbers are adding up.

http://www.admob.com/marketing/pdf/mobile_metrics_dec_08.pdf

Especially for the iPod touch, the numbers are mind-boggling. Although the iPod touch is not a phone, it uses essentially the same OS, so its staggering sales will drive developers to the iPhone platform. Nothing remotely similar is happening with any of the other mobile platforms, not OVI, not Windows Mobile, not Android and not Palm..

1. The iPhone OS had 32% worldwide share in December, up from 6% in May.

2. iPod touch requests increased from 18 million in July to 292 million in December.

Whether you like it or not, the iPhone is leaving everyone else in the dust.

[Anonymous Coward]

Fundamental change

Unless Apple change their policy of only one carrier in the US/UK/Europe then this isn't viable.

Certainly, the people who published this paper have got a lot of publicity out of it.

[Anonymous Coward]

BS!!!!!!!

This article is complete pay for play apple BS propaganda..... I have been using 3rd party free powerful apps on my nokia smart phones since 2002!!!!!!!!! apple is a fad/joke of a smartphone developer.... if u want a device optimized to sell you over priced novelty crap buy an i phone.... Literally every major app that is advertised and sold for the iphone has been available for nokias for like 5 years... apple is not innovation they are truncating the open-ended strategy of nokia and replacing it with high speed pipelines to sell you apps that should be and are free for nokias. if you want a device that actually delivers value and excellence in hardware buy yourself a nokia... if you want a device that rips u off in ever-new and improved ways buy an apple....

[David]

What about the 'HOORAY I'M AN ARSEHOLE effect ?

I have ALWAYS had Nokia phones right from the start. I find them reliable and I can make telephone calls, which is what the thing is for. I love my Apple MacBookPro and my iMac, but I don't want an iPhone ! Why? Partly because all of those who need to show off in the kind of coffee bar I wouldn't be seen dead in, have one and wave it around so that you can see that they have one !!!

How GOOD is it as a phone ? ... I tried one and it is NOT as good as my Nokia N95 8GB, which does MUCH more than anyone could ever need from a phone !

How GOOD is it as a camera ? .. SHYTE !!

How good is it as a computer ? ... Sinclair Spectrash comes to mind !!!!!!

How good is it as a media player ? ... VERY VERY EXPENSIVE !!!

If I had one, I would have to use it in secret because I don't want anyone to think I am one of those 'look at me, I'm great' arseholes !!!

I try to use my phone discreetly, so I don't want some flashy thing which shouts out 'look at me'. I just need a phone which can store numbers, make calls, from which people can hear me clearly and on which I can hear people clearly ... that's it ... my TV is 42 inches, so why would I want an iPhone --- unless maybe my dick was only 4.2 inches !! ?? :)

[pk_de_cville]

JMO

The iPhone(s) will prove to be phenomenal, big time.

Some haven't noticed that every smartphone introduced since its introduction has taken cues from it.

... It's App Store has 15,000 apps and has downloaded over 200mm.

... iPhone web browsing makes up 80% of all mobile web browsing.

... Apple makes over 55% gross margin on each phone. It is Apple's most profitable product.

... iPhone accounts for over 30% of Apple's profits.

... iPhone2, probably a nano, will provide another lower cost option.

... Apple's DNA is to build a dominant ecosystem (store, content, apps, quality, security, device)

... Apple has over $25B in cash and will use it to innovate through the economic weakness.

... The iPhone runs an app that recognizes user created Chinese and Japanese Ideograms. No one else does.

... Palm may be bought by MSFT, but Ballmer will find a way to screw it up.

[Walker]

Made-up statistics are funneh!

I knew he was talking crap when I read this:

"iPhone web browsing makes up 80% of all mobile web browsing."

That lie is based on a European survey which established that

"80% of iPhone owners USED their handset to browse the web."

Major difference. lol.

Many thanks to pk_de_cville for demonstrating that 98.8% of statistics are made up on the spot.

[Hans]

@Walker, please walk home!

[...] the search engine giant Google, who in the recent Mobile World Congress (MWC) has revealed that iPhone originates 50 times more searches than any other mobile handset. This owes credit to the superb user interfaces and simple, structured internet plans in iPhones, which encourage more internet usage in comparison to other mobile services.[...]

I doubt any other handset gets close to that ...

I have used an iphone for a little while and must admit, the internet is so much fun on it (don't own one), nokias, blackebrries and windows mobiles are plain crap at navigating the web, I have tested recently - i'm looking for a phone ... I have not tested Palms ... worst are, in my opinion, windows mobile phones, though ... a real pain. I have not tried blackberry storm, so maybe it is so much better on internet than other blackberries, which I doubt ... and No, I am no Apple fanboy!

I am most likely getting a storm soon ...once I have tested it and only if internet is at least usable ... I would like to avoid iphones - I refuse to get hype products ....