Resurgent Russia
The way things are going, defence budgets are going to have to be increased anyway. Time to get those RAF squadrons binned a few years ago back in the air.
Funnily enough I see a world where the BAOR etc. will have to come back perhaps on the Oder instead(!).
Obviously Russia want to re-absorb their old satellite states (most of whom suffered brutally under Russian occupation). Remember after all that Russian and Norway should absolutely NOT share a land border but for land stolen from Finland.
The Russian government, Russian Mafia etc. are all brutal and will stop at nothing to assert themselves. We can only be glad that their equipment is mostly crap and that there are only around 150 million of them.
Anyway, back to Eurofighters - keep them and rotate them as originally planned and stop doing the silly modification thing like carrier borne.
By the way, Afghanistan won't last much longer there will be a face saving way out negotiated with the Taliban as the voters won't have the stomach. Only the UK, Canada and the US are really doing any actual fighting (French casualties aside - but in a safer area). The rest of NATO are busy doing their 1930s thing and playing hide in the sand. Might as well declare themselves neutral while they're at it (and hand over the Czech Republic to the Russians this time 1938 .... 2008 who knows).
Also, Boeing-Vertol or whatever they're called are flat out and don't have much space for the RAF to build new 'copters.