UK finds itself almost alone with centralized virus contact-tracing app that probably won't work well, asks for your location, may be illegal

Britain is sleepwalking into another coronavirus blunder by failing to listen to global consensus and expert analysis with the release of the NHS COVID-19 contact-tracking app. On Monday, the UK government explained in depth and in clearly written language how its iOS and Android smartphone application – undergoing trials in …

[EvilDrSmith]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

Presumably, you missed the news coverage where it was established that Cummings in fact questioned the members of SAGE on their recommendations, and pushed towards the adoption of more stringent lock-down measures than they were recommending?

[Dan 55]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

I believe herd immunity via contagion instead of vaccination was originally pushed by one Demonic Cummings, according to the Sunday Times exposé.

Also, NHSX and Faculty were originally designing the app based on a herd immunity policy.

So you'll forgive me if I'm somewhat cynical of the claim that Cummings was pushing for a harder lockdown on SAGE. As a government advisor he shouldn't even have been there.

[Rogerborg 2.0]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

A government advisor shouldn't have been a government advisory meeting, you say?

[Dan 55]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

Precisely.

No evidence No 10 advisers attended Sage during previous crises

It is a purely scientific committee which produces reports for the government... until now where 13 out of 23 members receive their salary from the government.

[EvilDrSmith]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

Dan,

You seem concerned regarding the makeup of SAGE - do you believe that those 13 of 23 members that receive their salary from the government is unique to this incarnation of SAGE? Or is it normal for SAGE (it appears to have been around for a while), and you have a more fundamental objection to the group makeup?

[Dan 55]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

Your questions are answered in the article I linked to.

[EvilDrSmith]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

Thank you for responding.

However, the article refers to political advisors and downing street officials.

You've referred to 13 out of 23 members of SAGE as permanent paid advisors, which I took to be a reference to the likes to employees of the NHS and Public Health England, the chief scientific advisors to various government departments, etc.

So the article doesn't really answer my question - are you suggesting that department Chief Scientific Advisors are not civil servants, but political appointees and, despite their apparent technical qualifications, not appropriate people to be on SAGE?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

Re: Stick to the tech, please

Presumably, you missed the news coverage where it was established that Cummings in fact questioned the members of SAGE on their recommendations, and pushed towards the adoption of more stringent lock-down measures than they were recommending?

=======

That was the mid March meeting when the grim realisation of what his strategy would do had been presented to him.

The original 'herd immunity' strategy started in February and was still being talked about on the 12th/13th of March by the behavioural scientists before the panic pivot and lockdown from the 23rd.

Good thread here with the strategy being talked about https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1238097745971421184

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

>Completely wrong? Really? The UK approach was changed, true, but COMPLETELY wrong? Bearing in mind that the original UK policy is largely what is being followed in Sweden, and while some argue it is a mistake, others seem to believe the Swedish policy is working.

The current number of dead people in Sweden is slightly over 6x the combined number of dead people from Norway and Finland - from a similar combined population. It might be working by some measures, but doesn't seem to be by the only one that counts.

The Sweden approach (the Swedish adviser was a student of the UKs BTW) makes assumptions about developing immunity, that immunity lasting and no long-term consequences that could backfire significantly later.

[EvilDrSmith]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

So you're agreeing that there is uncertainty amongst the best-qualified people as to what the correct approach is?

And therefore also agreeing that it was somewhat bold of a journalist that specialises in IT to declare that a bunch of eminent and highly (relevantly) qualified individuals were completely wrong?

[Dan 55]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

There are very few countries who have followed a herd immunity policy and the death stats show it's not been a success.

Also, SAGE has 13 members out of 23 which are paid government advisors in one capacity or another.

If you would like a demonstration close to home, try comparing NI (followed UK Government advice) and Ireland (followed Irish government advice, which was basically following WHO advice).

Slightly further away we have Sweden alone among the Scandinavian countries following a UK-style policy and the stats show this.

[werdsmith]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

I still can't compare any territories because the reported statistics are all too dodgy.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

If you would like a demonstration close to home, try comparing NI (followed UK Government advice) and Ireland (followed Irish government advice, which was basically following WHO advice).

OK. As of May 4th

Ireland: Population 4.9m, 21,772 cases (0.44%) and 1319 deaths (0.027%)

N. Ireland: Population 1.9m, 3,881 cases (0.2%) and 404 deaths (0.021%)

Sweden alone among the Scandinavian countries following a UK-style policy

Not at all, Sweden hasn't imposed a lockdown. Their figures, for May 5th, are:

Population 10m, 23216 cases (0.23%) and 2854 deaths (0.029%)

which puts NI better than either, and Ireland with a similar death rate to Sweden but twice the infection rate.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

You understand don't you, that the dust has settled and the winner is lockdown. Fewer deaths, virus over quicker.

All the infection routes they failed to model, would be moot if they had no infections. All the unknowns with the new virus are moot if the virus isn't infecting people. All the people they failed to flag as 'vulnerable' to the new virus with the unknown properties, are moot if they don't infect people they think might perhaps be *in*vulnerable to it.

That's the inherent advantage of not intentionally infecting people with a deadly virus you don't fully understand.

Gee who would have thunk it? Everyone competent, that's who.

Lessons need to be learned and some people need to be sacked.

UK needs a tougher lockdown, it will be months behind the rest of Europe in shedding the virus. Flat is not good enough. Ask a competent scientist, how it can be strengthened.

[EvilDrSmith]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

>You understand don't you

In the wider sense of virology, probably not, it's not my area of expertise.

But no nation has a full lock-down: there are still medics at work, police on the streets, food being delivered, shops open. Meaning that there is still the route for the virus to circulate.

If every nation on the planet can bear the pain long enough, the virus will die out (except it probably jumped species into Humans, meaning there may always be a reservoir of virus in the species of origin) or we'll get a vaccine / cure.

But right now, most of the nations in Europe seem to be loosening their lock-downs, with the sensible concern that they will see a rise in the number of cases as a result.

If lock-down is effective in supressing transmission (as it appears to be) then it would seem highly likely that there will be an increase in cases as the suppression measures are reduced. (If there isn't, it implies that the suppression measures were not actually suppressing anything).

This is, I believe, part of the argument that guided the Swedes to adopt their approach - a less stringent lock-down results in less risk of a peak when you release the lockdown (since there is less to release).

>not intentionally infecting people with a deadly virus you don't fully understand

No one has been intentionally infected.

And infecting someone with a deadly virus isn't particularly sensible however well you understand the virus.

>the winner is lockdown. Fewer deaths, virus over quicker.

Fewer deaths: well, possibly; fewer deaths at the mid-point (if that is where we are now), not yet clear at the end, But possible.

Virus over quicker: Probably not.

You appear to have forgotten what Everyone competent was saying back in February and March - it's all about flattening the curve.

Do nothing, cases exceed the capacity of your health care system, some people die because they were going to die if they got the virus, lots of people die that could be saved.

Flatten the curve. cases are within capacity of your health service, some people die because they were going to die if they got the virus, everyone that could be saved is saved.

But the area under the curve is unchanged: the number of people that get the virus is unchanged, but the duration of the outbreak is longer, and that saves lives.

So virus not over quicker.

Now I don't know if that's correct (not my area of expertise), and perhaps Everyone competent has since changed their opinion, and flattening the curve is no longer the solution.

Meanwhile, lots of people that aren't experts in virology, but are experts in other things (like cancer care) are expressing concern about the impact of the lockdown.

And because I am not a specialist in those areas either, I wouldn't suggest that they are completely wrong.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

It's over in most of the world. Be more like them, be less like you.

"But no nation has a full lock-down: there are still medics at work, police on the streets, food being delivered, shops open. Meaning that there is still the route for the virus to circulate."

Its over in most of the world and they didn't starve. I had steak, turns out I don't need to have Covid as a side order.

"If every nation on the planet can bear the pain long enough, the virus will die out"

What pain? It was a month of staying home, an uncomfortable mask and a lot of hand washing. Oh you mean the Netflix original movies.... OK, pain, I gotcha.

"Flatten the curve....But the area under the curve is unchanged:"

Bullshit, there's no such 'fixed area' rule. A line running along the zero origin is 'flattening the curve' too.

Thailand had 9 cases a day. Its not for Thailand to tell the UK how to wipe your asses, but that's something else you do wrong. I'm sure you could write masses of words explaining how toilet paper is best and skid marks are unavoidable, or you could just buy a butt gun and clean your skanky asses properly. I'm just saying, while we're fixing your messes, about those shit streaks...

"Meanwhile, lots of people that aren't experts in virology, but are experts in other things (like cancer care) are expressing concern about the impact of the lockdown."

So why are you prolonging the infection then? I see you want to play off 'cancer experts' against 'virologists'. But you are neither and speak for neither group. There is not such dichotomy, the sooner you suppress the virus the sooner you can safety give cancer treatment to people.

[philipcsmith70]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

'Current deaths'. This thing ain't over, no vaccine, no cure. Some countries have more deaths at this stage but all will be similar in the end - if the IFR is the same, adjusted for culture and demographics.

[Anonymous Coward]

Swedish model

The Swedish model: Health minister decides to isolate old/ill people and do nothing else 'wait and see' is the policy. Swedes ignore him and travel falls by 50%, people keep their kids at home. Half assed lockdown ensues where the minister pretends he's doing "herd immunity" and that he trusted Swedes to do their own lockdown which was his plan all along.Death toll stood at 146, but they'll "wait and see", that was end of March. They claim its only higher in Sweden than Norway because more people are infected because they did no lockdown and claim it will even out.

That was March, now its May, we can see.

Norway, 214 dead and almost finished.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/norway/

Sweden 2769 dead and the epidemic is ongoing

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Norway wins, Sweden loses, now sack the health minister and do the lockdown.

[Rogerborg 2.0]

Re: Swedish model

At what cost to the Norwegian economy, and what happens when they come out of lockdown?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Swedish model

@"At what cost to the Norwegian economy"

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109567/gdp-growth-forecast-in-norway/

Slow GDP growth of 0.5 % quarterly in Norway

In Sweden they're expecting a *drop* of 6.9 % in GDP.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

Norway wins.

@"and what happens when they come out of lockdown"

Norway will be Corona free way sooner than Sweden, it can open its borders to other Corona Virus free countries, Sweden cannot, its infection is ongoing.

Even if they achieve "herd immunity" as they hope, that is not immunity, its just < 1:1 infection rate. As Sweden stops its half assed lockdown, it has far more people potentially with Covid infections to infect those people coming out of voluntary lockdown. Take a guess what will happen.

[philipcsmith70]

Re: Swedish model

Nonsense - no country will remain coronavirus free when there are countries that are not. It will get everywhere again, unless we live in permanent lockdown. No vaccine, no cure, most of the population susceptible. Norway's current position is not the end game by any stretch of the imagination. Your judgement is coloured by politics.

[Adair]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

Even my 'back of an envelope' calculation done on 6 March - I'm looking at it now - worked out that by doing nothing there was a good prospect of ~600,000 deaths by July.

'Herd immunity' is a fact of life concerning long term presence of a disease in a given population - it isn't a policy.

The Govt's. error was to turn it into a policy. They were wrong. 100% wrong, unless we place no value on the lives of those we love, our neighbours, or our own life.

[IDoNotThinkSo]

Re: Stick to the tech, please

Their policy was to avoid having too many cases at once such they couldn't all be treated as appropriate. Other than that, there wasn't a plan to stop it spreading because they thought that almost everyone was bound to get it sooner or later. Delaying that outcome was pointless as it just meant a very long lockdown and a wrecked economy.

They did actually meet this policy aim.

There does seem to have been a pivot to waiting for a vaccine now, or at least running at a lower level of cases. Perhaps there is some confidence that vaccine will be available sooner rather than later.

In the absence of a vaccine, though, what is the point of an endless lockdown?

[royston_vasey]

So if you don't trust the app, you won't download it. If you do trust it, it won't work very well. Looks like a strategy of herd immunity is still with us.

[Anonymous Coward]

Looks like a strategy of herd immunity is still with us.

Without a vaccine what alternative is there? Lockdown can only be a temporary measure, so either the virus will fade away, or enough of those of us left must become immune.

[Stork]

That is, if the immunity lasts

[Anonymous Coward]

>Without a vaccine what alternative is there? Lockdown can only be a temporary measure, so either the virus will fade away, or enough of those of us left must become immune.

*If* recovery confers immunity *and if* that immunity lasts *and if* there are no long term health affects (sequelae) associated with recovery. All three are assumptions at this point.

[Anonymous Coward]

Makes no difference. Lockdown can't be permanent, or we'll all die from the global economic collapse. Either the virus dies out, or everyone that is left ends up immune. The immunity rate just decides how many are left.

[Stork]

The Economist had an interesting take on it, the 90% economy. Most things pick up somewhat, but not as before.

I think it's free to read.

[Anonymous Coward]

Did they watch V for vendetta after or before 1984?

[Anonymous Coward]

My coronavirus mask ->

Suitably enhanced to catch coughs and sneezes, of course.

Hopefully proof against facial recognition too!

[jospanner]

If this sort of thing doesn't terrify you, or if you think that the government won't abuse it, remember that the government has no reason not to do what ever it wants with this information, and that governments have no inherent moral restrictions.

British police have raped women who have then had children, all in the name of stopping ecological protests. They harvest data from every possible source. There are cameras everywhere, and now the police are trialling facial recognition tech.

The purpose of the state is to further the interests of those who control it and benefit from its monopoly on violence, and those people are inevitably the rich and powerful.

If you're not paranoid, you're not paying attention.

[Anonymous Coward]

If you don't like the T's & C's

don't install the app.

OR

install it on an old device and leave that device at home (accidentally of course)

I won't be installing it as I'm on the 'quarantine for 12 weeks list' so I'm going nowhere outside my home apart from not overlooked back garden.

[benoliver999]

There is one weakness with the Apple/Google approach: it still requires a central server to actually handle the disclosure of infections.

It is still far better than the NHS project, which is dangerous and doomed to fail.

[Anonymous Coward]

1984 was a blueprint but....

Surely the salient point is, if the author is right about the bluetooth permissions issue meaning that at least one of the phones and apps in an 'interaction' has to be awake this just fails like the failiest fail thing ever? I am happily WFH at the moment, but in those dim distance days when I was unable to avoid the office I had my smart phone with me, sure, but I wouldn't wake it up the office except perhaps 3 or 4 times a day, why would I? (I could tell my boss its because I as so focused on work, even if its actually because the office broadband is way better than the mobile phone signal....). It would be considered poor etiquette to take an active mobile into a meeting. When I went to the canteen the chances are about 50/50 as to if my phone would even come with me, much more likely to stay in a coat pocket!

I really hope they can get this to work - because I really want us to beat COVID and return to normality. I guess the positive thing is if it does actually work on the Isle of Wight, famously stuck in the 1950s it should work anywhere!

[jake]

Re: 1984 was a blueprint but....

"I really want us to beat COVID and return to normality."

Most sane people do. I am not convinced our governments are entirely sane, though.

[Doctor Syntax]

Re: 1984 was a blueprint but....

I'm sure BoJo does want to beat COVID. It's just the slight offset from reality that makes it difficult for so many of his educational background to work out how to do that.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: 1984 was a blueprint but....

It's just the slight offset from reality that makes it difficult for so many of his educational background

Are you seriously suggesting that the facebook & Twatter numpties who dropped out of their local comp at 16 would be better at it? You may have a grudge against public schools, but Eton still turns out good academic results in the same exams that everyone takes.

[Anonymous Coward]

"it is likely to be a repeat of the disastrous “herd immunity” policy that the government initially backed as a way to explain why it didn’t need to go into a national lockdown."

Fact: herd immunity was never Government policy. It was considered but rejected, and the assertion makes the reader seriously doubt whether the rest of the piece deserves to be taken seriously.

[David Neil]

The evidence suggests otherwise

1/10 - awful bait but awarding you a point as I felt compelled to reply.

[Doctor Syntax]

Re: The evidence suggests otherwise

So why did you reply?

[You aint sin me, roit]

I know you are lying* I just don't know how much

Though I have my worries...

I saw Matt Hancock on the BBC news this morning, saying that all information resides on your phone until you indicate that you have symptoms, at which point your phone "pings" the phones of all of the people you might have met.

Yes, he said your phone pings theirs... all info held on your phone until you indicate you have symptoms.

Which is already bollocks. I am being lied too, and I know it. So how much else is lies?

He said if you indicate you have symptoms you get sent a test. If you show positive your phone "pings" again. Yes, pings. And all the people you met are sent tests too! Where did they get those addresses?

He said that once you test positive then all consideration of privacy goes out the window. Fair enough, you're on the NHS database. But it makes me wonder about one of the reasons behind the centralized database - so they can locate outbreak hotspots. They will already have all that information as soon as you test positive!

With adequate testing the centralized app gives you no more hotspot information. Without testing it is merely propagating hearsay.

* He's a politician, I saw his lips move.

[IDoNotThinkSo]

Re: I know you are lying* I just don't know how much

If they stamp each interaction with a location, in theory they could work out where (and possibly how) the disease is being passed on. I think that is the idea.

Obviously they can already map where people testing positive live.

[teebie]

Re: I know you are lying* I just don't know how much

"Ping" could well be ignorance, not dishonesty. He probably heard the term - possibly from one of the maker of his privacy-and-security-disaster app - and has been using it incorrectly ever since. In this case to mean 'contacts a server, which contacts other phones.

In Hancock's defence he often displays astonishing ignorance, so this isn't too farfetched.

I am not a defence lawyer.

[Len]

I don't think Apple and Google are creating an app

As far as I'm aware there is no Apple/Google app and there won't be an Apple/Google app.

All they have done is agreed a way to collect, store and share information in a uniform (cross platform) way and have developed an API do to this on iOS and Android level. It's then up to governments to create an app on top of this API. Only one government app per country will get access to this API to prevent fragmentation.*

Apple/Google were in talks with the UK government to have the UK government app use that API but the UK Gov declined because the API is too privacy conscious.

* Considering the UK is still in the Brexit transition phase I wonder if there could be an EU-wide app run by the European Centre for Disease Control that could also cover the UK. It would directly compete with the UK gov's and I would be happier to install a decentralised app run by the ECDC than some shady Dominic Cummings outfit.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: I don't think Apple and Google are creating an app

The EU-wide proposal is for a centralised app, which Germany and others have rejected.

[ridley]

Re: I don't think Apple and Google are creating an app

Dont be silly they can't reject an EU proposal and go their own way hat would require sovereignty.

[vbjcg]

Re: I don't think Apple and Google are creating an app

Was it? I thoguth the EU backed either method if implemented correctly

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: I don't think Apple and Google are creating an app

Always a problem for the EU. Recommend option "A", half the members complain. Recommend option "B", the other half complain.

What do do to show leadership? Recommend both!