back to article Predictive Dirty Dozen: What will and won't happen in 2022 (unless it doesn’t/does)

I have been looking intently at my ball again and I'm about to reveal everything. No doubt you have been plagued by "predictions for the next year in tech" for weeks already. Me too. My first receipt of such crystal balling arrived in my inbox during September, and the 2022 hype brigade has been working flat out ever since. …

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        1. Pascal Monett Silver badge

          Yes, but a lease arrangement is not what you expect when you buy the car.

          1. the hatter

            If you haven't paid all the money for the car, you haven't bought the car. Whether it's styled as a proper lease, a lease to own, or credit (especially for those with poor credit), then it's only if you think the credit provider has a generous nature that you should be surprised that failing to pay means failing to be able to drive said car, one way or another.

            However much you or the people taking up the offers might not like the down sides, there's obviously some up sides else people wouldn't be accepting the terms, and such schemes wouldn't be worth offering.

      1. veti Silver badge

        Re: Toyota.... paying to retain capability

        More commonly known as "Uber".

      2. Toe Knee

        Re: Toyota.... paying to retain capability

        "Buy here, pay here" is the monstrosity you're trying to recall. Don't make your INSANE weekly payment? Vehicle is remotely disabled!

        1. W.S.Gosset Silver badge

          Re: Toyota.... paying to retain capability

          It is extremely expensive to be poor.

          1. ThatOne Silver badge
            Devil

            Re: Toyota.... paying to retain capability

            Indeed, living is so much cheaper when you're wealthy, you get more aids, better tax breaks, can afford more efficient kit (which wastes less money and lasts longer) - to make it short, I really wonder how people can afford to be poor, it's prohibitive...

          2. Norman Nescio Silver badge

            Re: Toyota.... paying to retain capability

            Time to link to the pTerry "Sam Vimes' 'Boots' theory of economic injustice", as described in Men at Arms

            MoneyWise: Understanding the 'Boots Theory' of Socioeconomic Unfairness

            1. Terry 6 Silver badge

              Re: Toyota.... paying to retain capability

              Yeah, I'm well aware of this one. We can afford to replace our car with a hybrid (it's a luxury that we do so before we come close to needing to, but we could get our money's worth first if we wanted to).

              We buy a lot of our stuff at Costco- which is usually much cheaper, we have access to cash to buy there in bulk and the room (especially now, emptyish nest) to store it; and their new petrol station is much cheaper too. Even without Costco we'd be able to buy a lot of stuff at bulk prices- often considerably cheaper that way and requires fewer journeys too.

    1. Fruit and Nutcase Silver badge

      Re: I predict that Toyota is going to remove functionality ...

      making it illegal to use anything other than public transportation anywhere in Dear Old Blighty

      Just apply that to our elected representatives - then you'll have the best integrated/joined up transport system in the world. And no hopping on a private jet by the PM to travel back from a climate change conference - get on the train, a coach or he should hop on his bike and bugger off

      1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: I predict that Toyota is going to remove functionality ...

        You'd end up with a few hundred well integrated routes. The vast majority of other routes people need would remain the usual random partial collection of disjointed services.

  1. Little Mouse Silver badge

    "you will wake up to find a QR code tattooed onto your privates"

    A wrinkly ball-sack QR code could prove to be a bit of a challenge.

    It's hard enough flattening the bar code on a packet of crisps so it can be read by the supermarket scanner.

    1. jake Silver badge

      Re: "you will wake up to find a QR code tattooed onto your privates"

      Just attempting to get it read will be ID enough ... "Oh. You're THAT guy ..."

    2. Alistair Dabbs Silver badge

      Re: "you will wake up to find a QR code tattooed onto your privates"

      In case you assumed nobody would be dim enough to get a QR-Code (i.e. an entirely temporary-by-design 2D barcode), look here.

      1. Semtex451

        Re: "you will wake up to find a QR code tattooed onto your privates"

        Re 'Look here'

        I shall politely decline.

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: "you will wake up to find a QR code tattooed onto your privates"

        Boy, is he going to be pissed that boosters may become a (half) annual event..

        Also, I call BS, for two reasons:

        1 - that QR code isn't complex enough to hold a Covid cert

        2 - I checked (of course I would), it comes up as invalid, even in 3G mode. If you watch the video you you'll see the code change on the display into a more complex one before he gets a pass, and there's no way that authorities will allow you to divert to another code as that would lead to fraud.

      3. jake Silver badge

        Re: "you will wake up to find a QR code tattooed onto your privates"

        "In case you assumed nobody would be dim enough to get a QR-Code"

        There are plenty that dim, or even dimmer. Look at how many teenagers get their girlfriend's name/face prominently and permanently inked onto their person. I wonder what their .sig others have to say when they are in their late 20s or early 30s ...

        1. herman Silver badge

          Re: "you will wake up to find a QR code tattooed onto your privates"

          Well, if your GF is named Mary or Kate, finding another one should not be too hard.

    3. Chris G Silver badge

      Re: "you will wake up to find a QR code tattooed onto your privates"

      A steam iron and spray starch may work.

      But only once for most people.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: "you will wake up to find a QR code tattooed onto your privates"

        "A steam iron and spray starch may work."

        Or a beard trimmer and a steady hand.

        Allows changing the code every couple of months.

    4. ShadowSystems

      Re: "you will wake up to find a QR code tattooed onto your privates"

      I get mine inked on my arse so I can moon the person demanding to see it. Brightens my day right up! =-D

  2. Howard Sway Silver badge

    AI transcription and translation improves massively

    I spotted one that has improved a bit too much the other day - one of the big news agencies had provided a story from a foreign source that had obviously just been run through an 'AI' translator. It did its job so well that it had done literal translations of people's surnames too, producing a serious story featuring characters with names like Mr Clothesjiggler and Mrs Ratpolisher.

    I guess the subeditors who now just spend their days having to rewrite the nonsense that the AIs spit out must have been on a festive break too.

    1. Alistair Dabbs Silver badge

      Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

      To be fair, this is what sub-editors have always done.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

      Google's translation service between the languages I use isn't better for more than a first-draft still, but I was impressed by a demonstration of another system my company is starting to use, which was easily as good as could probably be done by a typical native-speaking 11 or 12 year old. Worth noting that I'm no language specialist myself, a professional might have other opinions, and there has been a lot of government support around here to ensure that the minority language in question is well-supported.

      1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge
        Unhappy

        Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

        I recently had to pay a company for a professional certified translation of a legal document, the recipient wouldn't accept my 'unofficial' translation. The first draft I got back was clearly just output from a mechanical Google-translate type of process. I sent it back with corrections, and got my own work back certified with the 'professional' translation stamp. Paid 100 quid for the privilege.

        1. Chris G Silver badge

          Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

          When I hot married in Spain, I had to provide a UK government translated copy of both my divorce papers and birth certificate.

          My birth certificate in Spanish is on parchment with a wax seal and red ribbons on it .

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

            with a wax seal and red ribbons on it

            Wait, have we somehow gone back to Dabbsy's eggs?

            :)

          2. W.S.Gosset Silver badge

            Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

            > When I hot married in Spain

            Baby crowning?

        2. Martin an gof Silver badge

          Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

          My brother fell foul of this the other way around many, many moons ago. He was laying out a leaflet for a client and - without thinking - corrected a minor error in grammar. This was in Welsh; even native speakers have trouble with the written form, and the leaflet had been written and translated by the client. Proofs were sent off in the usual way, and in return came a tirade of "how dare you"s and threats to withdraw future business if the original wasn't restored or the designer in question (i.e. my brother) wasn't disciplined.

          He had to grovel to the client personally, buy flowers etc. and the leaflet went out with the mistake intact. It wasn't long after this (and possibly partly because of the lack of support from his superiors) that he decided to go freelance.

          M.

          1. Bogbody

            Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

            Getting Welsh grammer 100% right is not easy.

            It stands out a mile if its wrong but my Welsh grammer isn't good enough to correct it most of the time, however I have Welsh speaking friends that can.

            In the case quoted I would have been fired - if I was 100% certain I was right (and had checked) - there would have been no apology, no flowers. I would have stuck to my guns as I was thrown out of the door.

            I have form for this sort of thing :-) - its happend before :-) :-)

    3. Primus Secundus Tertius

      Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

      None of these transcription or translation computers "really understand" the words. They manipulate the words but basically they are just bluffing. And it does not take long to see that they are just bluffing.

      1. W.S.Gosset Silver badge

        Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

        If only people would routinely apply the same rigour to "experts" in public life/prominent positions.

        Had a chap here recently pull out of a major one at the last minute (2? days before) for fear of same. CHO- Chief Health Officer for Queensland, with at present high public profile and disturbingly high powers over people's lives and businesses. He had that same week proudly and loudly expressed his pleasure and excitement at the prospect, pointedly touting that Qld's hospitals were ready for any major Covid surge and he would be able to apply his prior experience with the Ebola pandemic and the Zika pandemic.

        Qld hospitals are running just under 100% capacity with no Covid (half of them Code Yellow any weekend), and there never has been a pandemic in either Zika or Ebola.

        1. herman Silver badge

          Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

          “ there never has been a pandemic in either Zika or Ebola.” - shows you how good he is!

      2. veti Silver badge

        Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

        Define "really understand"?

    4. Jonathan Richards 1

      Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

      Is it good enough to output text about a WWII fighter aircraft called the Cutler 109?

      1. Norman Nescio Silver badge

        Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

        Isn't that the Virgin Records album number for Velvet Donkey?

        1. jake Silver badge

          Re: AI transcription and translation improves massively

          My copy claims it is V2037 ...

  3. Gene Cash Silver badge

    Will Happen #2: All goods are purchased through crowdfunding

    Nope. Crowdfunding is cyber-panhandling.

    "Established companies launching standard products and new editions" - isn't that actually pre-ordering? I've preordered a Prusa XL because I'm very satisfied with my i3 Mk3, and Prusa has always delivered in the past. I do not in any way consider that crowdfunding.

    I do know webcomics artists and stuff do kickstarters for things like shirts, pins, posters, and other merch, but that's because they really need to know the demand (or lack thereof) and they can't be stuck with a closetful of shirts for the next decade. So they use the Kickstarter framework because it's the easiest/cheapest way to do it, but it's not really crowdfunding either. All the people that back the Kickstarter get their shirt with the witty saying or whatever.

    I have noticed however that I'm buying a ton less from Amazon because I can't find shit in the page-after-page of alphabet-soup Chinese company names all using the exact same stock photo of their supposed product.

    My last 4 large purchases were directly from the original vendor website. It seems people have finally a) realized how to make a shopping cart that works, and b) pushing people off to a distributor or reseller or "find a dealer" does NOT work.

    You've got someone that made all the effort to find your widget AND your website.., don't alienate him by refusing to sell to him, like selling your own damn widget is dirty work that's beneath you. I never understood that.

    Especially when you list 3 local stores as "dealers" and I already know for absolute certain they DO NOT sell your product, which is why I'm looking at your damn website in the first place!

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Pint

      Re: Will Happen #2: All goods are purchased through crowdfunding

      @Gene Cash

      What is this pre-order thing? Seems to me you either order something or you don't. Is a pre-order when you order something and when it is available you order it again? Seems like insanity to me. I just go into a shop, ask for something, if they haven't got it I order it and when it arrives, the "shop" tells me it has arrived and I go and collect. No pre-order bullshit needed.

      And is it "pre-order" or "preorder"? you seem confused. Maybe you need beer?

      1. Alistair Dabbs Silver badge

        Re: Will Happen #2: All goods are purchased through crowdfunding

        "pre-ordering" just means ordering something before it has launched and made available for the first time. The hyphen helps the brain pronounce it correctly in your head.

        Now, what gets on my tits is "pre-book".

        1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge
          Coat

          Re: Will Happen #2: All goods are purchased through crowdfunding

          "Now, what gets on my tits is "pre-book".

          I find it easier just to say "tree".

          1. W.S.Gosset Silver badge

            Re: Will Happen #2: All goods are purchased through crowdfunding

            Which also happens to be the one-word punchline of an great joke which has everyone simultaneously barking with laughter, and saying (with a nervous glance round for the thought police) "you did NOT just say that. ....did you?"

            "TREE!"

    2. Martin an gof Silver badge

      Re: Will Happen #2: All goods are purchased through crowdfunding

      I have noticed however that I'm buying a ton less from Amazon because I can't find shit in the page-after-page of...

      Me too, but if I do have to get something from Amazon (Amazon vouchers are still used as presents around here) then I have for years given myself a better chance of success by narrowing searches to contain only items "sold by Amazon" or "fulfilled by Amazon". At least that way you know a: that it will arrive, and b: (if the latter) that the company actually making the sale has enough behind them to lodge some goods at an Amazon warehouse somewhere.

      However, if the company has its own website and there's no pressing need to spend Amazon vouchers, I'll always head directly to the company.

      M.

  4. storner
    Pint

    "two of them within walking distance from my front door"

    Walking distance on the way to the brewery, not after you've tasted their 'warez.

    Happy New Year to everyone.

    1. Alistair Dabbs Silver badge

      Re: "two of them within walking distance from my front door"

      The brewery nearest to me - literally in the same suburb - runs a regular Christmas crowdfunder to buy an expensive new piece of kit. The reward is the same for everyone: a case of their bottled beers every month for the next 12 months. It works out at half price, as long as you're prepared to collect in person.

      1. Sam not the Viking Silver badge
        Pint

        Re: "two of them within walking distance from my front door"

        A sort-of-new brewery set up in our town with ample encouragement and support from the locals. They have a shop and a bar conveniently placed (for me). As they were getting going, I enquired if they were doing gluten-free beer (as its the only type I can have).

        "No plans at the moment" was the response. In consequence, I don't go there. Nor do our 'social' group as there are other establishments nearer. It's sort-of popular, but not very busy.

        Whereas the brewery up-the-road-in-another-town does meet my demands; their attitude is "it's easy to do, so why not?". It has a shop, a bar, a good eatery and is not over-priced. I just don't understand why it's very popular.

        1. imanidiot Silver badge

          Re: "two of them within walking distance from my front door"

          While I understand completely how much it sucks not being able to drink gluten containing beers, I can also understand that if a brewery has a lot of experience and success brewing only gluten containing beers they might not be inclined to experiment with gluten-free beers. No matter which way you turn it, demand for it simply is lower and you need enough volume to fill a run (Brewing is very a very "batch" based process, and you can't easily run a batch smaller than your setup is intended for as cooking and cooling equipment etc requires a certain fill level for them to work as intended). So perhaps for that sort-of-new brewery, for them it just doesn't currently make sense to experiment with gluten-free beers. They could of course buy in from other suppliers, but that sort of defeats the "locally brewed" part.

    2. herman Silver badge

      Re: "two of them within walking distance from my front door"

      Walking distance there and Crawling distance home are not the same thing.

  5. Colin Bull 1
    FAIL

    Can we try and get HMG to join the crowdfunding lark

    I would like to get my hands on some LF testing kits which HMG say or in plentiful supply. LIARS

    If you go on the web sit to order some it will NOT allow you to pre order just states no stock available. It does give you a link to your local pharmacies who have no stock, no way of pre ordering, only pay a visit and being told last batch received ran out in 20 minutes.

    Surely they can bring us out of the 19th century by having a web site that can take pre orders and /or link it to local pharmacies.

    I predict we will not have an honest government IT system until we are all robots in the 22nd century.

    8 million testing kits are being delivered on New Years Eve. If there are 7 in a pack that is just over one million packs. With over 20 million households that is one for every 20 households or 5% of the country. That is without some supply going to hospitals, workplaces etc. Plenty of supply my arse.

    1. Martin an gof Silver badge

      Re: Can we try and get HMG to join the crowdfunding lark

      I would like to get my hands on some LF testing kits which HMG say or in plentiful supply. LIARS

      Well, they've had 10 million kits from Wales altogether, with four million of those sent this week

      I think what has happened - as with the apparently non-consulted "we'll vaccinate everyone before the end of the year" debacle a couple of weeks ago - is that someone has decided to change the rules, which means an awful lot more LFTs are required by your average household, without making sure to order in sufficient (or indeed any) additional supply. Many NHS and care workers, for example, are required to take daily LFTs, and you could read between the lines of what Boris and Javid have said about taking LFTs before going quite literally anywhere outside your house to imply that if you don't, England will introduce the same restrictions as Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland already have. People are therefore testing themselves before going to the shops, let alone before going to the cinema, the pub or the football match.

      M.

    2. ShadowSystems

      Re: Can we try and get HMG to join the crowdfunding lark

      Similar issue on this side of The Pond in California. Get told I need a booster, the doctor's office is too swamped to give it to me & suggests I talk to my local pharmacy. Pharmacy says it's a "first come first served" situation any time they get a fresh shipment in so the only way to get said booster is to show up on their doorstep at 8AM to find out if they are getting a scheduled delivery, if they might get an unscheduled delivery, and what the wait looks like to get said shot if they are. Can you check online? Of course not.

      There's no way to reserve an appointment to get the shot from the pharmacy, no way to learn if they are expecting a delivery, no way to get a notification when they do get a shipment in, and my only option is to get up at the buttcrack of dawn, put on pants (PANTS!), and trudge my groggy arse to the store ~6 blocks away to shiver in the chill until they deign to open. The hours claim 8AM, but the pharmacist knows he's got a captive audience so he shows up whenever the fek he feels like it. So what if you've been there since 7:45 & it's now 5 till 9? What are you gonna do, go somewhere else? Good luck at the Walmart phallacy err pharmacy, you're unlikely to even get in the door unless you've been camping on their step for the past six months.

      I can empathize & sympathize with your desire to have suitable quantities of test kits & booster shots made available. If the government wants to know why more people aren't getting the jab, they need look no further than the nearest pharmacy that is about as useful as an accordian to someone without arms. =-/

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