'Especially when the iPhone gets NFC as it almost certainly will next year. By then sellers will be not only supporting Passbook, but will have begun building an NFC service infrastructure the iPhone can use.'
So Apple are going to sell an NFC iPhone next year (which, by the way, there is absolutely no indication of let alone it being 'almost certain') knowing that the infrastructure won't be there yet, but it will be once loads of people have bought NFC-equipped iPhones (which they initially won't be able to be use the NFC in very much) and that encourages businesses to actually install NFC equipment, so that maybe six months after buying the phone, people can finally actually use this new feature that's actually been around for ages but nobody gave a crap about because it's a solution in search of a problem.
Are you really running that as an argument? Really? What incentive does Apple have to design & manufacture something into the iPhone design to support an infrastructure that isn't widespread and that they will make no money off but will make a lot of money for other people? And what incentive will there be for people to buy these new NFC'ed iPhones, purely on the promise that at some point in the future they'll possibly be able to use this new feature to do some things they don't find a particularly inconvenient process without the new fangled tech anyway?
I mean, what? Do you own shares in NFC chip makers or something?