Out of interest
How accurate do Gartner's projections tend to be?
Are they like horoscopes, where one only remembers the ones that were correct (confirmation bias?).
Data druids at Gartner are defending their soothsaying abilities after being forced to halve the projected rise they forecast for global tech spending for 2017 when an expected slide in the value of the greenback didn’t materialise. “The strong US dollar has cut $67 billion out of our 2017 IT spending forecast,” said research …
Accurate if you believe the opposite of what they "predict". Gartner has not figured out the IT industry as a whole is a mature industry with limited growth worldwide. What is happening is some sectors are cannibalizing other sectors, if you are in the growing sector there is an illusion of rapid growth but when combined with declining sectors there is much less net growth.
The strong dollar is just their excuse for being wrong as usual.
Had the dollar weakened, they'd probably blame the weak dollar for making US companies reluctant to spend, or come up with some reason related to Trump's election or a blister on Bill Gates' toe why "we would have been right if it wasn't for X"
How did they get to that? The US Federal Reserve has been promising to raise rates for some time now, which, all things being equal means financial inflows and a stronger dollar due to the carry trade if nothing else.
But, they're not that dumb. It was just the usual wishful thinking and now a vaguely plausible reason for being wrong. Elsewhere consolidation in the industry tells us all that business is slack and money is cheap.
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I nearly had a heart attack when I read Gardner had been "forced to halve global tech spending projections for 2017." That would have been a $1.75Tn reduction! I was practically celebrating when I realised it was a mere $67Bn drop... I think if you insert 'growth' between spending and projections, that should do the job nicely :-)
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